Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 181546
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
946 AM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Made just a few minor adjustments for the update. Lingering
vorticity over the eastern zones, combined with some moisture and
instability, will generate isolated showers in this area this
afternoon into the evening. Extended PoPs further S into Carter
County based on GFS/EC/HRRR. Will need to watch if precip.
develops a bit further W into Custer County as day progresses.
Temperatures were in good shape based on mixdowns. Increased wind
speeds in Carter County based on recent obs. Also adjusted sky
cover based on satellite imagery. Overall, a mostly sunny day with
near seasonable temperatures. Arthur

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Thu...

Heights are rising across the region as split trof to our east
moves through the central plains. Diurnal heating will tap into
some modest/shallow instability in our far east, where cyclonic
flow lingers, so feel there will be a few showers near Baker and
Ekalaka late this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise it will
be a dry day with decreasing wind as the upper ridge builds in
from the west. Winds should turn easterly across our western cwa
before sunset. Look for high temps in the lower-mid 50s.

Aforementioned ridge will bring dry conditions Wednesday
night into Thursday. Deep Pacific low will move through the
southern Great Basin Thursday and Thursday night. We`ve been
watching this low for some time now, and models have locked into a
southern track which will basically miss our area. As winds turn
easterly with some weak upper diffluence we may (or may not) see
a few light rain showers eke into our southern/eastern cwa.
Otherwise we`ll see temps in the 50s to lower 60s on Thursday.

JKL

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Mo major changes in the extended. All the guidance continues with
the southerly track of the low pressure system for Friday. Have
kept PoPs and temps similar, just blended with the latest trends.
Saturday continues to look dry and some ridging work in. Saturday
looks to be the warmest day with highs up into the 60s. Sunday
still has weak cold front move through as a shortwave moves across
southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Models still are not showing
much in the line of precip with this. It will decrease
temperatures a little. Going into early next week, there is still
a great deal of uncertainty on any precip. Have some chance PoPs
as the GFS is fairly aggressive with bringing some precip across
the area Monday into Tuesday, but the ECMWF continues to be dry.
&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions to prevail today. An isolated shower with
brief MVFR conditions is possible near KBHK this afternoon into
this evening. Reimer/RMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 033/058 036/057 035/066 040/059 037/056 032/056
    0/U 00/B    11/B    00/U    11/B    23/W    32/W
LVM 051 029/055 031/060 033/067 036/062 034/057 030/058
    0/U 01/E    21/U    01/U    22/W    34/W    32/W
HDN 056 030/059 036/057 032/065 037/059 036/055 032/055
    0/U 00/B    21/B    10/U    11/B    33/W    32/W
MLS 054 031/058 037/058 033/064 038/059 037/055 032/053
    1/U 10/B    21/B    00/U    11/B    23/W    21/U
4BQ 051 030/056 037/054 032/061 038/059 037/052 030/052
    0/U 00/B    22/W    10/U    11/B    24/W    31/B
BHK 050 028/052 033/050 033/055 038/055 036/050 031/050
    2/W 20/B    12/W    10/U    11/B    23/W    21/B
SHR 052 028/060 035/055 032/065 035/064 037/055 031/056
    0/U 00/B    23/W    20/U    11/B    23/W    42/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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