Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 180251
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
851 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.UPDATE...

Surface low and an associated upper trough were shifting east
this evening with diminishing showers over the area. With recent
moisture, there may be some localized patchy fog overnight. Have
updated winds, sky cover, and pops to current trends. Otherwise,
the rest of the forecast remains on track and the previous
forecast discussion and an updated aviation discussion are below. STP

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu...

Surface low across the Montana/Dakota borders will shift east
this evening. In addition, the large trough over the northern
Rockies will also slowly shift east for the remainder of today and
into the overnight hours. This will allow for the light rain and
snow across eastern Montana to taper off within the next several
hours. Earlier snow at Miles City has changed to rain during the
past couple of hours and the snow has ended in Sheridan. However,
webcams show snow and low visibilities continuing over the Big
Horn Mountains. This too is expected to end during the next few
hours, and as a result, we will continue the winter weather
advisory for the Big Horns through 6 pm. Skies overnight will be
mostly cloudy with some breaks at times. Winds will begin to
decrease as well after sunset. Can`t rule out some patchy fog east
and southeast of Billings but there may be enough clouds and
mixing to keep that from forming but will need to monitor for
that.

High pressure ridging will build back once again for the day
Wednesday bringing mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer
temperatures. Models bring an upper low across southern California
and into the four corners region Thursday into Friday. This will
bring a split flow aloft across our forecast area with the energy
and precip staying south of Montana at this time. Temperatures
will be mainly in the lower 50s Wednesday with middle to upper 50s
Thursday. Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Did not need any significant changes to the extended forecast
based on latest models and their ensembles, which were in good
agreement. Upper low will be over the four-corners region on
Friday. A few of the models brought moisture northward around the
low into the SE half of the forecast area. Therefore spread a
slight chance of showers further W and N Fri. morning and kept
PoPs over the far SE in the afternoon. Mixing supported
temperatures in the 50s to low 60s, except for the far SE, where
readings will stay in the 40s. Did have a mix of rain and snow
showers over portions of the area in the morning. Kept the region
dry Fri. night and Saturday. A shortwave will pass by N of the
Canadian border Sat. night, pushing a cold front and some moisture
into the area. Had a slight chance of showers, mainly from KBIL W,
with the front. Good mixing on Saturday will push temperatures
into the upper 60s to low 70s in many areas. Sunday will be a bit
cooler with an E wind. Highs will reach the upper 50s to 60s.
Pacific moisture will move into the area Sun. night with a slight
chance for rain showers and a few snow showers. Chances for
showers continue on Monday as another wave pushes a reinforcing
shot of cooler air into the region. Highs will be in the 50s.
Chances for precipitation decrease on Tuesday as moisture moves
out of the area. Arthur

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect shower activity overnight to dissipate with mostly VFR
conditions. Winds will be decreasing. borsum

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/055 033/057 035/059 035/070 040/063 037/055 032/056
    20/U    01/E    11/B    10/U    21/B    23/W    31/B
LVM 028/051 029/055 031/059 033/069 036/064 034/056 030/056
    20/B    12/W    21/B    01/U    22/W    23/W    32/W
HDN 031/055 031/059 035/062 032/070 037/063 036/054 032/055
    20/U    01/E    22/W    10/U    11/B    23/W    31/B
MLS 032/053 031/056 036/062 033/067 039/062 037/054 031/052
    10/U    00/B    22/W    10/U    11/B    22/W    21/B
4BQ 032/050 031/056 036/054 032/065 038/062 037/052 030/052
    20/U    00/B    22/W    11/U    11/B    23/W    31/B
BHK 028/049 028/051 032/050 033/063 038/059 035/049 031/049
    30/B    00/B    12/W    11/U    11/B    23/W    21/B
SHR 028/052 028/056 034/054 032/062 035/064 037/056 031/057
    20/U    01/E    32/W    11/U    11/U    23/W    52/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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