970
FXUS63 KFSD 132044
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
344 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions prevail through Tuesday afternoon. Wildfire
  smoke from Canada lingers over the region, reducing air
  quality and at times, visibility.

- Moderate chances (30% to 60%) for scattered showers and
  thunderstorms return Tuesday night through Wednesday. Severe
  weather is not expected.

- Confidence in rain chances remain low for the end of the week
  given the model variability in place. Higher confidence
  remains in continuing above normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

NOW THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Smoky skies along with poor air
quality continue as Canadian wildfire smokes filters in. This has
also led to reduced visibility, generally around 3-5 miles (although
a few isolated observations have fallen to less than 3).
Temperatures have climbed into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Most of the
area has remained dry today with just a few showers and isolated
storms early today south of Hwy 20, and some isolated activity this
afternoon across portions of northeastern NE. Expect dry weather
through tomorrow afternoon. North to east winds are gusting around
20 to 25 mph at times, and should taper off after sunset. Lows
tonight fall into mid and upper 40s. For tomorrow, winds shift to
the southeast as low pressure and mid level wave approaches and
increase with gusts around 20 to 25 mph. Some isolated showers are
possible west of the James River during the mid afternoon hours,
with the warm front north of the area.

TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY: Mid level wave and surface low
track through the area during this time, bringing shower and storm
chances to the area (expanding from west to east Tuesday
evening/night). Expect coverage to be scattered. There may be a few
lulls in activity, and timing this is difficult due to the variance
in timing/track of the surface low over the area. However, more
widespread coverage of precipitation is possible Wednesday afternoon
through night as the low and attendant cold front swing through.
Although we could hear a few rumbles of thunder, severe weather is
not expected given the lack of instability and shear. Could see some
brief heavier rainfall with any thunderstorms, but expect rainfall
amounts less than a quarter inch for most (locally higher amounts
possible). Some stronger storms could produce some small hail or
brief gusty winds. Mild lows in the 50s Tuesday night, with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday. Slightly cooler
temperatures Wednesday night, with precipitation coming to an end.

Another shortwave moves overhead Thursday, so rain chances are
expected to return later in the day. Highs again in the 70s with WAA
over the area.

FRIDAY ONWARD: Periodic precipitation chances continue through the
weekend, with mid level waves and surface lows tracking through the
northern and central Plains. Timing of these wave varies greatly
between models, so will leave the NBM as is. Conditions will be
breezy at times. Warmer than average conditions are expected as we
do see brief ridging and WAA. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s, with
ensembles showing > 30% chance of highs over 80 through the the
weekend. Lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

As high pressure to the north moves east, we will see these
light winds shift gradually from north northeast to more
easterly. Visibility should remain VFR despite smoke lingering
across the area.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...Connelly