788
FXUS63 KFSD 130804
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
304 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Outside of a few showers along and south of Highway 18 this
  morning, should see largely dry conditions prevail through
  Tuesday. Wildfire smoke from Canada will continue to
  overspread the region during this time.

- Moderate chances (30% to 60%) for scattered showers and
  thunderstorms return Tuesday night through Wednesday. Severe
  weather is not expected.

- Confidence in rain chances remain low for the end of the week
  given the model variability in place. Do have higher
  confidence, however, that at or above normal temperatures will
  continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Aside from a few showers along and south of
Highway 18, latest radar imagery reveals quiet conditions across the
region. Winds during this time have remained fairly light, with
temperatures hovering in the 40s to lower 50s. Expect these showers
to linger for much of the morning hours as a stacked low just south
of area slowly meanders eastward across the central Plains. Outside
of these showers, should see largely dry conditions prevail through
Tuesday with highs in the lower 70s. That being said, do think it`s
worth noting that Canadian wildfire smoke will continue to
overspread the region, which may result in periods of reduced
visibilities.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: Upper level trough and sfc warm
front surge toward the region Tuesday evening, causing showers and
storms to return to the forecast. At this time, most guidance
generally agrees that isolated to scattered coverage will be likely
along and west of the James River near midnight as the warm sector
builds overhead. In regards to severe weather, latest soundings
still reveal limited instability and shear, suggesting that the
overall threat should remain low. Rather, think the primary hazards
with any storm will be lightning, brief heavy downpours, and gusts
up to 50 MPH.

As alluded to in the previous discussion, could see a lull in
activity across our area Wednesday morning, with showers and storms
possible again during the afternoon/evening ahead of an advancing
cold front. Again, severe chances look to remain low given the lack
of significant instability in place. While a few lingering showers
may still be possible Thursday morning, expect the overall trend to
be toward drier conditions. In terms of rainfall, have accumulations
ranging between a tenth to a quarter of an inch, though locally
higher amounts may still be possible.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Model variability concerning how the upper
level pattern will evolve increases heading into the weekend, making
it hard to put too much confidence behind any one particular
solution just yet. While most resemble a quasi-zonal structure,
there is still quite a bit of variance regarding the timing of
individual shortwaves. So for now, will continue to advertise
periodic chances for showers and storms through the weekend. For
what it`s worth, ensembles continue to support low chances
(generally 20-30%) of receiving a tenth of an inch of precipitation
in any one 24 hour period. Otherwise, look for near to above normal
temperatures to continue.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to sag south
with a passing cold front tonight. Outside of this activity, VFR
conditions should prevail through the period. Occasional IFR or
MVFR visibility with rain, gusty erratic winds, and small hail
are possible near tonight`s thunderstorms. Showers and
occasional storms will persist overnight near the Hwy 20
corridor/Sioux City, but should mostly move out by 12z.

Ahead of the front, winds are mainly southwesterly and will
turn north behind the front. Canadian wildfire smoke aloft and
near the surface sinks in behind the front overnight and may
reduce visibility to MVFR at the surface at times, but
confidence in this is too low to include in TAF at this time.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...BP