Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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682 FXUS63 KFSD 141128 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 628 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Largely dry conditions are expected through the afternoon as Canadian wildfire smoke continues to linger overhead. Impacts near the surface should remain minimal. - Moderate chances (30% to 60%) for scattered showers and thunderstorms return tonight through Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms may be possible across northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa, with quarter size hail and gusts to 60 MPH being the primary hazards. - Confidence in rain chances remain low for the latter half of the forecast period given the model variability still in place. Do have higher confidence, however, that at or above normal temperatures will continue. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Aside from some upper level clouds across south-central SD, latest satellite imagery reveals mostly clear conditions across the region, with current temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Should see light and variable winds turn east/southeasterly shortly after daybreak, with gusts between 15 to 20 MPH possible in areas west of I-29 this afternoon. Could still see a bit of Canadian wildfire smoke linger aloft throughout the day, though impacts near the sfc are expected to remain minimal. Upper level trough and sfc warm front surge toward the region this afternoon/evening, causing showers and thunderstorms to return to the forecast. While WAA showers may be possible along and west of the James River prior to sunset, expect the better chances to arrive closer to midnight. These showers and storms will then push eastward through daybreak Wednesday and continue through the evening. As alluded to in the previous discussion, believe coverage will remain fairly scattered, with a few lulls in activity possible Wednesday morning. Coverage is then expected to become more widespread by Wednesday afternoon ahead of an advancing cold front. In regards to severe weather, instability still remains less then impressive with most guidance showing CAPE less than 500 J/kg. However, a few solutions do show bulk shear values between 20 to 30 kts. Thus, can`t rule out the potential for a few organized storms to develop. SPC`s latest Day 2 Outlook has introduced a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across northeast Nebraska and portions of northwest Iowa, with hail (to the size of quarters) and damaging gusts (up to 60 MPH) being the primary hazards. Thus, we encourage you to have a way to receive warnings in the event that storms become severe. While a few lingering showers may still be possible Thursday morning, expect the overall trend to be toward drier conditions. In terms of rainfall, have accumulations ranging between a tenth to a half an inch, though locally higher amounts may still be possible. Temperatures during this time look to remain seasonal, with highs generally in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Upper level flow turns quasi-zonal heading into the weekend, with a few shortwaves progged to take aim at the region. Should see largely dry conditions prevail Friday, with periodic chances for showers and storms possible again Saturday and Sunday. Overall moisture with these waves looks fairly meager though, so not expecting much in the way of significant accumulations. For those of you craving warmer weather, have afternoon highs warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s through the weekend, with lows remaining in the 50s. MONDAY ONWARD: Model variability concerning how the upper level pattern will evolve increases heading into the new week, making it hard to put too much confidence behind any one particular solution just yet. So for now, will continue to advertise periodic chances for showers and storms. Otherwise, look for afternoon highs to drop back into the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Quiet conditions are expected to prevail through the afternoon as Canadian wildfire smoke lingers overhead. Impacts near the sfc should remain minimal though, allowing VFR conditions to persist. Should see winds turn east/southeasterly this morning, with gusts between 15 to 20 MPH possible in areas west of I-29 this afternoon. Otherwise, look for showers and storms to return to the region late tonight through Wednesday, causing cigs and vsbys to lower by the end of the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SST AVIATION...SST