Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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665 FXUS63 KFSD 131134 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 634 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Outside of a few showers along and south of Highway 18 this morning, should see largely dry conditions prevail through Tuesday. Wildfire smoke from Canada will continue to overspread the region during this time. - Moderate chances (30% to 60%) for scattered showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday night through Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected. - Confidence in rain chances remain low for the end of the week given the model variability in place. Do have higher confidence, however, that at or above normal temperatures will continue. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Aside from a few showers along and south of Highway 18, latest radar imagery reveals quiet conditions across the region. Winds during this time have remained fairly light, with temperatures hovering in the 40s to lower 50s. Expect these showers to linger for much of the morning hours as a stacked low just south of area slowly meanders eastward across the central Plains. Outside of these showers, should see largely dry conditions prevail through Tuesday with highs in the lower 70s. That being said, do think it`s worth noting that Canadian wildfire smoke will continue to overspread the region, which may result in periods of reduced visibilities. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: Upper level trough and sfc warm front surge toward the region Tuesday evening, causing showers and storms to return to the forecast. At this time, most guidance generally agrees that isolated to scattered coverage will be likely along and west of the James River near midnight as the warm sector builds overhead. In regards to severe weather, latest soundings still reveal limited instability and shear, suggesting that the overall threat should remain low. Rather, think the primary hazards with any storm will be lightning, brief heavy downpours, and gusts up to 50 MPH. As alluded to in the previous discussion, could see a lull in activity across our area Wednesday morning, with showers and storms possible again during the afternoon/evening ahead of an advancing cold front. Again, severe chances look to remain low given the lack of significant instability in place. While a few lingering showers may still be possible Thursday morning, expect the overall trend to be toward drier conditions. In terms of rainfall, have accumulations ranging between a tenth to a quarter of an inch, though locally higher amounts may still be possible. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Model variability concerning how the upper level pattern will evolve increases heading into the weekend, making it hard to put too much confidence behind any one particular solution just yet. While most resemble a quasi-zonal structure, there is still quite a bit of variance regarding the timing of individual shortwaves. So for now, will continue to advertise periodic chances for showers and storms through the weekend. For what it`s worth, ensembles continue to support low chances (generally 20-30%) of receiving a tenth of an inch of precipitation in any one 24 hour period. Otherwise, look for near to above normal temperatures to continue. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Expect largely quiet conditions to prevail across the region today, as Canadian wildfire smoke lingers overhead. Could see impacts near the sfc, mainly in the form of reduced vsbys to MVFR levels. Otherwise, look for winds to remain out of the northeast, with occasional gust up to 20 MPH possible through the afternoon. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SST AVIATION...SST