372
FXUS64 KLIX 082052
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
352 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

The forecast for the rest of today looks to be on track with high
temperatures sitting right around their peak for the day, in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures for tomorrow will be even
warmer ahead of a cold front that will be approaching. NBM
deterministic was running a touch warmer than MOS data and
guidance, so ran the 50th percentile for MaxT`s. This brings
afternoon highs for tomorrow into the low to mid 90s for most of
the CWA. Heading into Friday, bumped temperatures up a bit as the
NBM seems to be banking on clouds sticking around longer than they
look to. Still about a 5 degree "cooldown" from Thursday with
temps in the mid to upper 80s.


Now onto the main story of the short term period, tomorrow chance
of severe weather. The northern half of our CWA is highlighted in
a SLIGHT Risk by SPC for mainly wind and hail. Currently there is
quite a bit of model discrepancies. Many of them show an MCS
forming somewhere back in TX and they diverge from there. Most
have this MCS staying to our north, however as we have seen with
past events until this system actually forms it can have a more
north bias. So the 00z CAMs tonight and the 12z CAMs tomorrow
morning will be very telling. For now didn`t adjust PoPs a ton,
with them peaking in the early morning hours Friday. Taking a
look at model soundings, one thing that will not be an issue is
CAPE with ~3000-3500J/Kg available. There isn`t much in the way of
directional shear, but decent speed shear, so tornadoes are less
of an issue for our area. 500mb temps are around -10C which isn`t
crazy but is plenty cold for us to have some large hail.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Long Term...
Saturday through mid-week... Saturday and most of Sunday, zonal flow
will dominate the upper level pattern. Northerly surface winds
during this time will help to suppress humidities and keep
instability down, which will reduce PoPs. So, not much rain expected
Saturday into Sunday morning. Temperatures will be fairly nice over
the weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s Saturday and upper
70s to low 80s Sunday with lows in the low 60s.

An upper level impulse moves through the area Sunday night into
Monday morning with multiple small upper level impulses in close
succession through the early part of next week. For the impulse
moving into the area Sunday into Monday, southerly surface winds
will help advect moisture and instability ahead of the system. The
bulk of the best moisture and forcing looks to be for our
northernmost areas, but that could definitely shift as things
develop over the next few days. This is where there is some model
uncertainty over the location of the highest rainfall/strong
weather. This will hopefully become more clear in the coming days.

As stated above, more upper level impulses will be influencing the
area after Monday through the workweek. There is still a lot of
model variability and uncertainty surrounding the strength of these
troughs and timing. But it is becoming increasingly likely that we
will see multiple rounds of rainfall Monday through Thursday of next
week with near normal temperatures. More details will become a
little more defined as we get toward the beginning of next week. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Terminals continue to be a mix of VFR and MVFR due to lower
ceilings in some areas. These ceilings will start to lower more
into this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary. Most terminals will see MVFR and IFR conditions as the
cloud cover moves in. Winds will be slightly gusty gusty, gusting
20-25kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Flow will persist out of the southeast around 10 to 15 knots
through the rest of today with some locally higher gusts,
strengthening to 15 to 25 knots tonight into Thursday ahead of an
approaching cold front. This brings a Small Craft Advisory that
will be in effect overnight. The front will pass through the
coastal waters Thursday night or early Friday. Winds then shift
to the north and east to 10 to 15 Friday and Saturday. Seas will
generally be between 1 and 3 feet over the period, but will
briefly increase to 3 to 6 feet on Thursday. By Sunday, another
area of low pressure will begin to approach the area and winds
will turn easterly and then southerly ahead of this low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  73  90  66 /  10  20  20  40
BTR  93  77  94  72 /   0  10  10  20
ASD  91  75  92  71 /   0   0  10  30
MSY  90  78  92  75 /   0   0  10  20
GPT  86  75  89  71 /   0  10  10  50
PQL  88  75  90  71 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday
     for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday
     for GMZ534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...HL