Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 202322

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
522 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Models still trying to initiate some shower activity for Natrona
and Johnson Counties this evening, but each successive run pushes
the initiation time back farther in the evening. Once daytime
heating is gone, so are the chance for showers. The front is
stalled generally along the continental Divide, with lighter
north and east winds to the north of the front. These light north
winds will again bring a low layer of cloud cover from CPR to BYG
later tonight. The remainder of western Wyoming will see nearly
clear skies through the night. Sunday will be similar to today
across western and central Wyoming, with lower elevations ranging
from the 70s to the lower 80s, while higher elevations reach the
60s to near 70. Current model output shows less of a chance for
showers for the eastern counties, with slightly stronger capping
and the weak midlevel wave departing to the east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

A building ridge will bring warmer temperatures back by Monday,
with many areas reaching the upper 80s or 90s throughout the week.
Isolated convection will be possible each day, especially on
Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge begins to break down. Storm
coverage on Thursday will be greatest across southern Wyoming,
however, where the ridge to the south keeps the better moisture.
By Saturday the models are hinting at a shortwave bringing
increased moisture and better storm coverage to the area. Despite
the chances for showers each day, many locations will remain dry.
This means continued drying of fuels, and coupled with lightning
and gusty thunderstorm winds, fire weather conditions will need to
be closely monitored.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 516 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will impact areas over far eastern
areas this evening, mainly impacting KCPR, where very brief
MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible. Otherwise can expect some
gusty winds and VFR conditions at most terminals through 06Z

MVFR ceilings are possible over Johnson and Natrona counties late
tonight into Sunday morning. There is a small chance these low
ceilings could push west into the Wind River Basin. The rest of
the area is expected to be VFR. Cannot rule out very isolated
convection across Johnson County late Sunday afternoon and early


Issued AT 201 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

The front continues to meander across southern Wyoming the next
couple days, with light to moderate northeast winds on Sunday.
This will keep RH values 30 percent or better for the Big Horn and
Wind River Basins. RH will remain above 40 percent for Natrona and
Johnson Counties. Areas south of the divide will see RH again fall
below 20 percent, but winds will remain light and variable through
the day. Mixing and smoke dispersal will be good for SW WY, and
very good east of the divide.




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