Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 250159

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
859 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Southerly flow off the Gulf continues to bring in low level
moisture allowing for a muggy night. Boundary layer winds are
expected to relax during the overnight and this should allow some
low stratus and patchy fog to develop. Therefore, have added
patchy fog to the weather grid. Otherwise, current forecast is on





.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/


An area of low pressure moving across northern Arkansas into
Tennessee this evening has resulted in the breezy conditions this
afternoon. With the loss of daytime heating and the continued
departure of this low, expect winds to weaken overnight. With the
calming winds and well established low level moisture, cigs will
likely fall to MVFR after sunset with periods of IFR possible
during the early morning. Some patchy fog may also develop during
the early morning hours Sunday, but should dissipate by 14Z.

Ceilings will lift to MVFR once again during the day Sunday with
winds remaining generally light out of the south through the day.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/

Current sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off the Florida
coast maintaining a srly low-level flow over the forecast area
this afternoon. Wind speeds have remained somewhat elevated,
especially across the sern zones where the gradient is a little
tighter. Water vapor imagery shows a cutoff low over the upper
Mississippi Valley while weak ridging is again noted from the
Mexican Plateau nwd through TX and into the srn Plains. Satellite
imagery/sfc obs indicate bkn/ovc cu/sc in place across the region.
With capping holding in place, local 88Ds remain PPINE.

In the short-term, with good low-level moisture in place and a
trapping inversion progged to develop later tonight, will have to
watch for some fog potential...although winds look to remain up
just enough to preclude it for the most part.

Conditions are expected to remain warm and muggy through tomorrow
as the moist srly flow persists off the Gulf. The upper low
dropping through upper Midwest should help push a sfc front swd to
near perhaps the I-20 corridor over the next 24-36 hours...and
perhaps a shower or two could sneak into our far nrn zones, but
for now not expecting enough coverage to warrant any more than
silent 10s for POPs. Otherwise forecast models continue to
indicate at least minimal capping under the weak ridging as it
builds slowly ewd.

A storm system coming ashore along the Pacific coast will push
ewd, helping flatten the mid/upper-level ridge...while shortwave
energy streaming out ahead of this feature will also help in lee-
side sfc low development. With a weakening cap and increasing
moisture aloft per forecast soundings, a few showers look possible
across the wrn 2/3 of the area on Monday, then linger through
Monday night. As this whole system continues ewd, will begin to
see a cold front creep toward the forecast area into mid-week.
Rain chances start to increase Tuesday, mainly across the nwrn
zones, in response. Rain chances really increase Wednesday into
Thursday as the front slows down on its approach as it begins to
parallel the flow of now, excessive rain amounts are
not expected, but will have to continue to re-assess as we move
into next weekend. The next significant shortwave moving out of
the Rockies/Desert Southwest will finally shove the whole mess
through the forecast area later Thursday, with just widely
scattered lingering showers expected Thursday night across the
Atchafalaya Basin. Thereafter, the remainder of the forecast
period looks dry and cooler.

After a brief relaxation in winds through the remainder of the
weekend, an elevated srly flow is expected to return late Monday
as pressures drop over the srn Plains, tightening the gradient
over the nwrn Gulf. Winds will shift nrly behind the passing front
very late in the period.


AEX  63  81  62  83 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  67  80  67  80 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  66  81  66  80 /  10   0  10  10
BPT  67  80  68  79 /  10  10  10  20




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