014
FXUS65 KMSO 120947
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
347 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

.DISCUSSION...High pressure remains over the region today which
will result in another warm and dry day. Today will likely be the
warmest day of the week, with valley temperatures toping out in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

The pattern begins to change tonight into Monday as a weak
disturbance drops through the region out of Canada. This feature
will allow temperatures to drop slightly with breezy winds
developing. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will also develop
by Monday afternoon, mainly across western Montana.

Monday night into Tuesday, a weak trough of low pressure will be
settled over the region. In addition to cooler temperatures
precipitation will develop. The main focus will be across
northwest Montana and along the Continental Divide, where the
probability of 0.25" or more of precipitation ranges between 20 to
40 percent. Snow levels will be above 7000 feet, which will keep
snow accumulations to the highest mountain peaks.

Breezy west to northwest flow is favored for the Wednesday-
Thursday time frame. Forecast models still diverge a bit by late
next week. Roughly 60 percent show a colder/wetter trough moving
over the region, while the other 40 percent lean towards more of a
zonal (westerly) flow that would bring near normal temperatures
and breezy conditions.


&&

.AVIATION...High pressure will bring fair weather to the Northern
Rockies airspace today. Expect mostly clear skies with light and
variable winds today and tonight. The next weather disturbance
will arrive for Monday, increasing winds and bringing the chance
for afternoon showers.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$