Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 230926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
326 AM MDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...This morning the anticipated low pressure system is
moving through southern Idaho and into Yellowstone National Park.
Some light precipitation, including intermittent snow, has started
around Butte and Homestake Pass. Road temperatures remain warm
though, so little if any impact is expected this morning as snow
melts on the roads.

Tuesday through Friday warm days and cool nights are expected.
There will be plenty of sunshine except maybe for a period later
Wednesday as a disturbance moves through the region. High
temperatures will generally be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Lows
at night could dip down to freezing or even below in the low
elevation valleys (most likely for high elevation valleys).

Next weekend a ridge builds over the west coast, but some models
depict a low pressure undercutting it. This is a very
unpredictable pattern wherein even if there is a cut off low its
path is extremely difficult to predict. This is a good pattern for
showers and thunderstorms, so the probability of precipitation
forecast is around climatology to cover the possibility but not
much higher due to the uncertainty.


.AVIATION...All area terminals except KBTM will have good flying
weather today with mainly just some clouds. Terminal KBTM is on
the west end of the wrap around moisture from a developing
Yellowstone Low, which will cause snow showers this morning and
transition back to rain this afternoon. Snow is not expected to
accumulate on paved surfaces due to warm ground temperatures.



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