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000
FXUS62 KTBW 182340
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
740 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The warm and dry pattern will persist through the weekend, but
with the gradual increase in low level moisture the threat for
some late night/early morning fog will return. For tonight it
looks like inland parts of the Nature Coast could see some patchy
fog, then a better chance in the same area Friday night into early
Saturday morning with the chance extending south to around the
Interstate 4 corridor during this time. Have included this fog in
the forecast for tonight and tomorrow night, otherwise everything
else looks on track with no other adjustments needed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Some late night/early morning fog will be possible over inland
areas north of Interstate 4 tonight, and then a better chance late
Friday night into early Saturday over inland areas from around the
Interstate 4 corridor northward possibly affecting LAL. Otherwise,
no significant aviation concerns are expected. through the weekend
with VFR conditions prevailing. Winds will become light and
variable later this evening into early Friday then shift to west
to northwest and increase during the afternoon as the sea breeze
moves inland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Broad upper-level ridging remains in place as a weak but dry surface
high persists at the surface. The sea breeze boundaries are the main
feature of note in this setup as the light flow is allowing inland
propagation and a moderating of coastal temperatures with water
temperatures in the 70s. However, the aforementioned dry and stable
airmass remains a barrier to any convective development, despite a
setup not unlike a summer day.

Over the coming days, the gradual return of moisture may yield
enough low-level convergence to support an isolated shower across
the interior of the peninsula. That being said, this is still very
low probability. As such, have introduced a 10% POP for parts of the
interior, but it`s really difficult to have much more confidence
than that into next week.

The most notable feature on the horizon for next week is a shortwave
trough that yields some amplification in the flow and a period of
enhanced vertical ascent that may yield a few storms across
mainly the northern half of the Florida peninsula on Monday.
Otherwise, though, weather conditions are not really expected to
change. If anything, it may yield an increase in the overall
moisture content, favoring additional diurnal activity through the
end of the week.

Overall, though, conditions largely look warm and dry. While this is
a little earlier than normal and favors some record high
temperatures being set, we are fast approaching that period of the
year where this becomes the norm.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Light winds and seas continue through the weekend with an onshore
flow developing each afternoon along the coast as a warm and dry
airmass remains in place. As another storm system approaches
north Florida on Monday, some thunderstorms and increasing winds
and seas are possible, especially across northern waters.&&

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Conditions remain warm and dry through the weekend as high pressure
remains in control. However, winds are forecast to remain light at
this time with no red flag conditions expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  87  69  87 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  68  87  68  89 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  66  92  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  68  86  67  87 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  61  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  71  84  71  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt