Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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782 FXUS61 KRLX 280642 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 200 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure southeast of the area leads to summer like weather Sunday and Monday, with hot afternoons. The next chance for showers and storms will be Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Sunday... A summer like pattern is in place with high pressure southeast of the area surface and aloft, and relatively clean mid-upper level riding over the area that starts to drift east by Monday morning. This brings dry weather with just a few afternoon cumulus and no further convection beyond that. Light south to southwest low level flow of warm air will help buoy lowland temperatures into the mid 80s this afternoon, a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Lows tonight will also be well above normal, although lower than central guidance in the valleys on account of clear sky and light wind. Dew points can get close to 60 degrees F in portions of southeast Ohio later this afternoon and this evening. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 PM Saturday... Under the strong influence of high pressure and S-SW`ly flow, we`ll remain unseasonably warm through the short-term, with lower elevation highs from the mid-80s to around 90 degrees. Highs on Monday are currently forecast to get close to records for most of our climate sites - please see the climate section below for a list of Monday records vs. the current forecast. Clear skies are expected to start Sunday night, with some fair- weather cumulus then developing during the day on Monday. We can expect to see some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, work into the Mid-Ohio Valley region Monday evening and night as a weakening front approaches from the west. With greater moisture availability and modest instability during the day on Tuesday, more widespread showers and storms are anticipated. However, with only 25-30kts of 0-6km shear expected over the area, severe storms are not expected, though some could maintain themselves for a while with the modest shear and CAPE. The increased precip and cloud cover, along with the week front, may keep most of the area in the 70s on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 PM Saturday... The weak front looks to either wash out across the area or skirt by to the north Tuesday night. As it does so, a few showers may initially linger over WV and VA, especially in and near the mountains, but they are forecast to dissipate by midnight or soon after. We`ll be fully under the influence of high pressure centered over the Southeast US for Wednesday and Thursday, and temps will respond accordingly. Lowland highs on Wednesday look to be in the low to mid 80s, and most areas will tack on about 5 more degrees to those highs for Thursday. Even the mountains will be mostly into the 70s on Thursday, in a sure sign that summer is on the way. A few isolated showers are possible over the higher terrain on Wednesday and Thursday. by later Thursday afternoon, a trough moving into the Midwest may allow for some shower and thunderstorm activity to trigger across our western counties. While the global models do show some instability across the area, we`re far enough away from any appreciable shear associated with the trough that severe storms don`t appear to be a concern at this time. Showers and storms may then persist across the area through Friday, but again, as best we can tell as of now for a Day 7 forecast, severe storms don`t appear in the mix. The highs on Friday may drop a bit compared to Thurs, but that is likely owing largely to the expectation of some ongoing precip across the area. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 AM Sunday... A summer like pattern is in place with high pressure southeast of the area surface and aloft. This brings VFR conditions with just a few afternoon cumulus and no further convection beyond that. Surface flow will be light south by night and light southwest by day. Flow aloft will be light to moderate southwest, perhaps just enough for low level wind shear over the middle Ohio for a time this morning, and just enough just off the deck to preclude fog. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR or IFR fog cannot be ruled out at KEKN in the morning, on account of a bit of rain there early Saturday morning and again Saturday evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 04/28/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .CLIMATE... Mondays forecast highs vs. records for the CLI sites SITE Forecast Record (Year Set) Records Began Charleston 88F 90F (1996) 1901 Huntington 90F 91F (1914) 1897 Parkersburg 87F 86F (1991) 1926 Clarksburg 86F 93F (1986) 1922 Beckley 84F 85F (2017) 1893 Elkins 85F 87F (1996) 1899 && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/TRM/JMC NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...FK LONG TERM...FK AVIATION...TRM CLIMATE...FK