634
FXUS63 KGLD 101116
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
516 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for this weekend,
  especially along and south of Interstate 70. Severe weather is
  not expected at this time.

- Severe weather potential may return by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

For today, another relatively mild day is forecast as the area
remains under split flow or slight ridging aloft. With the upper
pattern fairly similar to yesterday, conditions will mirror
yesterday a mix of clouds and sunshine and some chances for
showers in Eastern Colorado (<20%). Highs are forecast to warm
into the 60`s, but could reach the 70`s for locales that see
less cloud cover during the day (mainly east of the CO border).
Tonight, cloud cover is forecast to continue to stream into the
area from Joes, CO to Russell Springs, KS and south with highs
generally kept in the 40`s. Precipitation chances are forecast
to drop off though.

Tomorrow, the upper cut-off low to the west is forecast to begin
moving east and start rejoining the main flow. This will help
advect more moisture into the area and potentially bring some
better synoptic lift. With this, cloud cover and precipitation
chances will increase through the day with showers and storms
forming during the afternoon and evening hours. Given the track
of the upper low, locales to along and south of I-70 will likely
see more rain and have better forcing. However, no severe
weather is expected with little instability in the area and weak
flow leading to low shear. Highs are forecast to be similar to
Friday in the 60`s and 70`s, though maybe a few degrees higher
east of the CO border depending on how quickly the clouds move
in. Saturday night will continue the precipitation chances,
though they may lower with the upper system more over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

For Sunday, precipitation chances are forecast to continue for
the area through the evening hours as the upper low continues to
track east, but accompanying troughing through the Plains will
help bring a weak low pressure system and front through the
area. The storms and showers could end a bit sooner than
forecasted as 500mb spread charts are favoring a slightly faster
track of the upper features. Severe weather remains unlikely,
but the chance is the slightest bit better with MUCAPE trying to
approach 1000 J/KG. However, shear remains weak (generally below
20 kts) so small hail would be the greatest "threat" unless a
storm can persist and produce large amounts of the small hail.
With the system and near persistent cloud cover, highs are
forecast to be a bit cooler, generally in the 60`s and low 70`s.

Monday is forecast to have the upper low leave the area and
allow cloud cover to break and temperatures warm back into the
70`s. There could still be some late afternoon and evening
precipitation chances with little to no dry air advection
keeping moisture over the area. Will either need some meso
features to spark storms or temperatures warm enough to hit
convective temperatures. Severe weather is not expected.

Tuesday on gets a bit more interesting as guidance suggests that
will be the next chance for a more pronounced upper feature to
swing through the Western CONUS. In most scenarios, an area of
low pressure develops over the area late in the day Tuesday and
sparks storms, including the possibility of severe storms. If
this scenario happened, temperatures could warm into the 80`s
with 850mb forecast temps high enough to support surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. The reason confidence is
not currently high is that the next upper feature is not one
wave, but looks to be more of a long trough with an upper low
that ejected out of it to the south. Ensemble guidance is
suggesting that this could delay the features and change
when/where the surface low forms. The warm temperatures would
remain, but the storm coverage could be changed with potentially
weaker synoptic forcing.

Wednesday and Thursday, regardless of solution, look to
continue to have storm chances with additional waves moving
through the flow and the overall slow progression of the main
features. If the trough stays more over the area and/or there is
persistent cloud cover from the upper features, temperatures
could cool back to the 60`s and 70`s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 508 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. Near surface winds are forecast to remain around 8 kts
or less through the period, generally from the northwest.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK