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000
FXUS63 KGLD 221914
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
114 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to above average temperatures are forecast for the week.
  There could be daily small chances for rain/storms.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday
  west of a line from Flagler to Cheyenne Wells.

- Chance for severe weather Thursday generally east of Highway
  25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 159 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Today, warmer temperatures are forecast across the area in the 70`s
and 80`s with continued southerly flow. The 70`s are more likely
along and north of I-70 as satellite observations already show mid
to high could cover moving over the area. Also, the low pressure
system that is forecast to move through the area should be near the
I-70 corridor by the mid afternoon hours. This will shift winds to
out of the north on the backside which will begin to advect in some
cooler temperatures (albeit not very high in magnitude with a few
degree change during the day). The rest of the area will see
temperatures raise to 80 or the mid 80`s as the low and front are
forecast to pass through these areas during the evening hours. RH
along and south of Highway 40 could drop to near 15%, but the
presence of the surface low over the area is forecast to keep winds
from mixing their full potential and just lead to occasional gusts
near 25 mph. In regard to showers and storms, generally dry
conditions are going to keep chances around 15% to 20% from Flagler
to McCook and south where surface convergence along the boundary
could allow some showers and storms to spark. The most likely
scenario is elevated showers that produce virga or very light rain.
If surface dewpoints can begin to reach 45-50F along the front, then
there may be enough instability for some lightning (as MUCAPE would
increase close to 1000 J/KG instead of <250 J/KG). Severe weather is
unlikely (even in an increased CAPE scenario) and looks to only be
possible if the boundary stalls in a west/east orientation, a storm
forms, and has a long residency time on the boundary to form hail.
Any shower or storm that forms should dissipate before midnight as
the low and front are forecast to push south of the area. The rest
of the night would then see skies clear and temperatures lower into
the 30`s and 40`s.

Tomorrow, in the wake of the system and with slightly higher
pressure over the area, temperatures are forecast to be a bit cooler
in the 60`s and 70`s. A mix of clouds and sun is forecast through
the day as 700-500mb moisture is forecast to continue to stream over
the area. During the evening hours, shower and storm chances are
forecast to return as a shortwave moves through the northwest flow
aloft. Precipitation may form over the higher terrain in Eastern
Colorado and move east with the shortwave. The potential showers
could also just be virga with a lack of moisture near the surface
that would also inhibit severe weather.

Wednesday, some slight ridging is forecast to try and move over the
area which may warm temperatures a few degrees compared to Tuesday
with highs generally near or above 70. The bigger change is the
increase in winds as a surface low is forecast to develop in the lee
of the rockies through the day ahead of an advancing upper trough.
Winds are forecast to sustain around 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30
to 40 mph. Critical fire weather is not expected at this time though
as RH is forecast to generally remain above 30% as some moisture
begins to advect in from the south. Will need to watch for a few
showers and storms from the higher terrain in Colorado again, but a
lack of overall synoptic forcing and with the low well to the west,
any precipitation will likely be light and non-impactful.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

As the system from Thursday leaves the area, Friday will see
lingering showers and low-end storms, as well as breezy west-
northwesterly winds. Pressure changes with this system have become
fairly weak with this run of guidance. The big change is the second
low pressure system is looking to arrive earlier than previously
thought. Gusts on Friday seem to max out around 30 kts. The
lingering showers and storms will retreat to the north during the
evening and overnight hours.

Another low pressure system is forecast to move into the area
Saturday evening. There are two guidance suggested tracks that this
system will take. The first track is over our southeastern CWA. This
would give majority of the Tri-State area a decent chance as some
stratiform rain, with a few thunderstorms embedded within. The
precipitation would be primarily be from wrap-around moisture, and
gives us a chance (~5-10%) of seeing some snow mix in. The other
track is across the northwestern CWA. This would give us a favorable
setup for severe weather Saturday evening and overnight. The SPC
currently has a 15% outlook for severe weather southeast of the CWA
on Saturday. This looks to be mostly based on the first track, which
has shown up more often in previous model runs.

Pressure rises behind the front on Sunday are strengthening from 24
hours ago, but are not overly impressive. Gusty northwesterly winds
around 30 kts are currently forecast for Sunday.

Winds that will generally favor the north will cause temperatures to
struggle. Temperatures Friday will be in the upper 60s to low 80s
and, depending on the low pressure system and associated cold front,
Saturday`s temperatures look to range from the mid 60s to low 80s.
Sunday, the Tri-State area will all be around 70 and begin warming
up again Monday, up to the upper 70s. Overnight temperatures look to
cool into the upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Cold front moving through the terminals early this
afternoon will shift surface winds to the north. Isolated
afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon, but probability of directly impacting either terminal
is low.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK