094
FXUS63 KGLD 021940
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
140 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front late Friday afternoon and Friday evening will
  result in a line of thunderstorms moving through the area with
  a marginal risk of severe storms. The main hazards will be
  potentially widespread strong winds along and behind the front
  as well as blowing dust. There are lower risks for hail and
  perhaps a brief tornado along the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Surface high pressure in control today with northwest winds
gusting up to 30 mph in the early afternoon and continuing to
slowly diminish as the pressure gradient relaxes. Tonight, a
weak shortwave trough moving out of Colorado may produce a few
isolated light rain showers, mainly in Colorado. Mean QPF
amounts are a few hundredths of an inch across northwest Yuma
County, less elsewhere. Low temperatures will range from the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Friday will be mostly sunny and dry in the morning then
increasing clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in
western areas during the afternoon. Shortwave trough moving
through the northern plains will send a cold front racing down
the plains in the late afternoon hours and through the evening.
Models suggest a line of thunderstorms will develop along the
front. Instability is fairly limited, topping out around 500-800
j/kg, but deep layer shear remains strong at around 50 kts.
While can`t discount a low end risk for hail or even a brief
tornado with the sharp frontal boundary, main hazards Friday
evening will be strong winds and perhaps blowing dust. Low
level lapse rates are not particularly favorable behind the
front, but there is a narrow corridor of more favorable rates
just ahead of it. Rainfall last night in many areas will be
working against the blowing dust potential. Given all the
variables confidence in blowing dust is medium at best, but
confidence in wind is high. HREF probabilities show about 20-30%
of members with gusts of over 50 mph centered around 03z with
the front. Some local gusts could be higher with convective
enhancement. The line of storms should be moving out of the
western counties by 06z and eastern counties by 09z. HREF mean
precipitation amounts are generally around a quarter to a half
an inch, with 90th percentile amounts of up to 1". Low
temperatures will range from the lower 30s in northeast Colorado
to the middle 40s in north central Kansas.

Saturday will be mostly sunny and dry during the day with highs
in the low to mid 60s. Flow aloft will transition to southwest
ahead of a system entering the Pacific coast, with northeast to
easterly winds at the surface. A shortwave trough coming out of
New Mexico ahead of the system will bring a chance for showers
and isolated thunderstorms to areas south of Interstate 70
Saturday night. SBCAPE and MUCAPE are more or less zero with
weak shear, so no severe storms are expected. 12-hour mean
precipitation amounts are less than a tenth of an inch by early
Sunday morning. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s.

Southwest flow continues on Sunday with possible weak embedded
waves. At the surface will see increasing southeast winds,
breezy to windy by the afternoon with mostly cloudy skies. Might
see a few scattered light showers through the day, but best
chances will be in the morning with any lingering showers from
Saturday night. There is some minimal SBCAPE available in the
afternoon (100-200 j/kg) so an isolated thunderstorm is
possible, but severe storms not expected. High temperatures
optimistically forecast to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, but
would not be surprised if they were a bit cooler. The low
chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms continues into
Sunday night as upper heights continue to fall ahead of the main
trough axis approaching the central Rockies by that time. Low
temperatures will range from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Saturday morning the area is under west-southwesterly flow aloft
with upper level ridging now centered over the Intermountain West
and the next low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific
Northwest. After a mostly dry day Saturday with high pressure moving
across, weak waves will then move through the flow in the Saturday
evening-Sunday timeframe and may trigger a few showers and
thunderstorms (~20-30% chance). Sunday afternoon-evening the upper
low progresses across the Great Basin. Breezy to windy conditions
are expected Sunday into Monday due to the tightening gradient
between high pressure moving off to the east and a developing low in
the lee of the Rockies. Current forecast calls for gusts to around
30-40 mph. Into the first part of the work week, winds of this
magnitude may create critical fire weather conditions, mainly
focused across west and southwest portions of the area where
relative humidity is forecast to drop into the 10-20% range. Also
expecting showers and thunderstorms for parts of the area on Monday.
Some uncertainty remains in position of the surface low which would
influence severe potential. If any part of the CWA would be favored
to see strong to severe storm potential, expecting it`d be
across the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of the area where CAPE values to
around 1000-2000 J/kg coincide with better moisture and ample
shear. Current confidence is low as the latest guidance has
trended the surface low farther east, and the severe potential
for our CWA hinges on its timing/ placement. Will continue to
monitor as guidance comes in better alignment. SPC`s current Day
6 (Monday) 15% risk is east of the area, from southwest
NE/eastern half of KS/central OK.

Tuesday-Wednesday may again have potential for portions of the area
(mainly west and southwest) reaching near-critical to critical fire
weather conditions with RH forecast in the teens and winds gusting
25-35 Tuesday and to around 25 mph Wednesday.

For temperatures, highs are forecast generally in the 60s for
Saturday before undergoing a warming trend into the 70s to low 80s
by the start of the work week, ever so slightly cooler Wednesday-
Thursday. For low temperatures, expecting low-mid 40s Sunday
morning, into the upper 40s to middle 50s Monday morning, and
upper 30s to mid-upper 40s Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday
mornings.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Northwest surface winds will gust up to 25 kts through
this afternoon, diminishing tonight, then increase again Friday
morning from the southeast and gust up to 30 kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...024