Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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223 FXUS64 KHUN 131723 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1223 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 915 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Low-medium chances of showers (30-50%) will persist through the afternoon into the evening in response to upper level shortwaves moving across the TN Valley ahead of a sfc low pressure system. Lapse rates are less than 6 C/km and instability continues to look minimal, therefore, low chances of lightning will accompany any shower formation. Higher confidence of lightning development remains south of the TN River. Cloud cover will limit high temperatures to the lower 70s this afternoon with breezy winds up to 20 mph at times due to slight pressure gradient over the area. Overall, minor changes were made to the previous forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Cloudy skies with chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight, as the storm system to our west nears. Mild conditions are forecast with lows in the low/mid 60s. Rain chances should ramp up late tonight and on Tue, as the system brings widespread showers, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Some of the storms could become strong to severe in intensity with wind gusts and hail the main threats. Locally heavy rains could produce ponding of water in low spots, and a small risk of flooding and flash flooding. Despite clouds and the rain chances, high temperatures should rise into the mid/upper 70s. A cold front trailing from the parent low over the Ohio Valley/Central States should sweep across the area Tue afternoon from west to east, helping to end the shower activity in the night. Lows Tue night should cool into the lower 60s. A dry period is forecast to begin on Wed with the area between systems. With more clouds than sun, high temperatures should rise into the mid/upper 70s and lows Wed night in the low 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 After brief upper ridging and surface high pressure that will keep rain out of the forecast on Thursday will come what seems like a "rinse and repeat" storm system (similar to the one discussed above) for Friday and into Saturday. Upper ridging will be pushed east as a trough makes its way over the Mississippi Valley through late week. At the same time, a surface low pressure system is shown to develop over southwestern Texas around midweek and then traverse to the northeast towards the ArkLaTex region by early Friday. Anticipating this system to continue its northeastward trajectory that will take it over northern Virginia, Delaware, and Maryland by Saturday morning. Chances of showers and storms are forecast to increase overnight into Friday morning. Unsettled weather will then likely persist through the weekend, with the highest chances (60-70%) of showers and storms anticipated Friday afternoon. While enough instability and shear will be present for thunderstorm development Friday afternoon and evening, the better upper dynamics and thermodynamics once again look to be to our south (much like the storm system in the near/short term). Overall, at this time, confidence in any severe weather is low because of this. However, we will continue to monitor this system in case the trajectory of the low tracks northward (increasing the severe potential). Highs will generally top out in the lower to mid 80s each day except for Friday (upper 70s) due to the increased coverage of showers and storms. Lows will remain in the lower to mid 60s through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 MVFR conditions are forecast to continue this afternoon through tonight as lowered ceilings continue. Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon, rain showers/storms will allow conditions to sink to IFR at times due to lowered ceilings and visibilities. In addition to this, AWWs may be issued during the late morning hours to account for lightning development. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HC SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...HC