Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 181950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
250 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

A rather potent mid level shortwave trough will translate out into
the Plains tonight and track along the Kansas/Oklahoma border and
then across southern Missouri Monday, while the surface low takes a
similar track. Isentropic lift will increase ahead of the system
this evening, with models continuing to indicate weak elevated
instability working its way northward into the region. Expect
showers with isolated thunderstorms to overspread the area from the
southwest this evening and then continue into Monday. Not expecting
anything severe tonight, with perhaps the strongest cells producing
some pea sized hail across far southwest Missouri.

By Monday tough, main rain band will be north of the
surface low across central Missouri, with some breaks across far
southern Missouri. All in all, expect a widespread rainfall from
tonight through Monday, with amounts ranging from 0.50" to 1.00".
Given the clouds and rain, temperatures will remain on the cool side
tonight with lows in the 40s. Given the expected track of the
surface low on Monday, highs will be quite variable from north to
south, with just lower 50s expected over central Missouri and
perhaps lower to middle 60s right near the Arkansas border.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

As we get on the backside of the system Monday night and Tuesday
morning, the precipitation will begin to wind down as somewhat
colder air advects in from the north allowing for some snow to mix
in with the rain later MOnday night into Tuesday morning. With lows
just in the 30s, not expecting any accumulation or impacts.

The area remains in a mainly dry northwest flow aloft Wednesday into
the first part of Thursday as surface high pressure translates
through the region. Subtle waves in the flow could produce some
showers on the back side of the high later Thursday into Thursday

Medium range models the diverge from Friday through Sunday, as ECMWF
holds on to mid level ridging for Friday, while GFS becomes more
zonal with a system moving through giving the area precipitation
chances and another system potential bringing more precipitation back
into the area Sunday. However, confidence in the Friday through
Sunday time frame rather low at this point. Model consensus would
suggest a warming trend through the period as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

The southwest half of the stratus deck dissipated rather quickly
over the past hour, which includes the 3 TAF sites. We are
expecting VFR conditions through the rest of the afternoon, with
lower ceilings and showers moving into the area by 23-00z. MVFR
and IFR ceilings will be possible this evening and overnight with
several rounds of rain. The showers later tonight will probably
have embedded thunderstorms and a chance of heavier rain, along
with some wind gusts of 15 to 25 kts.




SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.