Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 111839

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
139 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Water vapor imagery depicted an approaching upper level low just
northwest of Kansas City, moving southeast. An area of rain and
snow showers existed across Northern Missouri into Southern Iowa.
Observations in Iowa were reporting snow with temps around
34-36 degrees. Closer to home, temps remained in the 40s with a
surface trough bisecting the area.

The main challenge and focus of the forecast are the
temperatures, precipitation types and amounts for Today,
especially across Central Missouri.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Challenging forecast for Central Missouri today as the upper low
approaches this morning. Bands of precipitation will move south
through mainly northern and eastern portions of the area. Colder
temps aloft will work down and RAP/NAM forecast soundings do
indicate that locations from Versailles to Rolla will possibly see
a changeover to snow. Freezing levels get down to about
400-500 feet with surface temps remaining near 34-35 therefore
any accumulation would occur on grassy and elevated surfaces and
likely would not last long given warm ground temps. Snowfall rates
could be light to moderate at times. The timing for any snow
looks to be generally between 10am- 3pm. Latest runs of the HRRR
as well as the 00Z HREF mean snow output shows up to 1 inch
possible across Maries and northern Phelps counties, however as we
all know, trying to pinpoint exact snow band locations can be
difficult, therefore minor changes to the forecast are possible
through this morning. Experimental probabilistic snow output
shows higher probs for snow further southwest than currently
forecast, however not ready to adjust things just yet.

Generally followed recent hi res guidance for temps
today with 40s across most of the area with the exception of
Central Missouri. Locations west of US Highway 65 will see little
if any precipitation today. All precip will exit the are this

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 A CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Surface high pressure axis builds in Monday and Tuesday with
cooler than average temps but dry conditions. A glancing blow of
colder air from the Great Lakes will occur Tuesday night and temps
will likely drop well into the 20s.

Mid level ridge of high pressure builds in midweek with a big
warming trend and increasing southwest winds. Temperatures will
warm from the 60s to the lower 70s by Thursday and Friday. Interestingly
enough, the GFS mos guidance has upper 70s to near 80 by
Saturday. Not going that warm yet however the trend is there for
warming temperatures.

Fire weather concerns will exist Tuesday through Thursday this
week with Thursday looking like a day to watch with higher wind
speeds and low relative humidity. Rain and thunder chances
increase from Thursday night into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

A cold upper low was moving south across the region this
afternoon. Surface winds were gusty from the northwest with MVFR
ceilings. Some showers may impact the regions terminals early
this afternoon but otherwise MVFR to low VFR ceilings will be the
primary impacts through Midnight. As the low moves south and
east, ceilings will improve after midnight and through Monday




SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Hatch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.