Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 171943

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
243 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

A couple of upper level disturbances continue to affect the area.
Early on today the more prominent disturbance over AR was
producing some some heavier rainfall amounts in south central MO with
some slow rise flooding possible in some areas. The atmosphere
has stabilized in that area but will need to watch for some
additional convection drifting in from the southeast.

Another disturbance has moved south into west central MO with
fresh convection popping up over the past couple of hours north of
KSGF. The disturbance will drift southeast today and tonight and
we will continue to see showers/thunderstorms, particularly north
and east of the upper disturbance. Could see a stronger brief
pulse storm or two with hail and wind the main risks. With slow
moving storms, pockets of heavy rain and localized flooding will
be a continued concern.

The HRRR radar simulation does weaken convection this evening and
overnight as the upper disturbance drifts off to the east. Some
showers may linger over the eastern cwfa for a time.

With a shortwave ridge moving into the area Friday, convective
coverage looks to be more sparse, but some diurnal convection
chance will linger over the eastern cwfa.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

The shortwave ridge will shift off to the east with another
disturbance and associated weak sfc low moving from the Plains
into IA/western IL by Sunday night. The weakening trailing sfc
cold front will gradually become a west-east oriented boundary
that drifts into the area Monday. Guidance varies with subtle
features by this time, but there looks to be some rain/tstms
chances continuing into the midweek period with upper level
disturbances in the weak upper level westerlies. Definitely a
continuation of a late June type pattern versus stronger May type


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered thunderstorms will be
possible,especially at KJLN and KBBG as upper level disturbances
move through the region. MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible
with heavier showers. Some fog, particularly over far southern MO,
will be possible overnight 09z-14z with areas of ifr and mvfr
visibility and low/shallow stratus ceilings.




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