058
ACUS03 KWNS 141925
SWODY3
SPC AC 141924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the
Great Lakes.

...Central Plains...
At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely
to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA.
Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold
front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the
Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears
likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift
eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north
of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However,
sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and
hail risk from the central High plains eastward.

...Great Lakes...
As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front,
redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible
Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced
westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms
through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes
overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the
general environment will be favorable for severe storms with
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear.

...Gulf Coast...
A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air
mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear
could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central
Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur,
though convective details remain limited.

...Upper OH Valley...
On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection
could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and
central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms
may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley.
Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk
for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall
scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time.

..Lyons.. 07/14/2025

$$