Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
428 FXUS64 KSJT 130542 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1242 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Showers and thunderstorms that impacted our area this morning have moved off into north and central Texas. A few showers are lingering across the northeastern Big Country, but additional rainfall amounts will be light. Heaviest rains today fell in San Saba County where LCRA gauges picked up 1-3 inches. We could see a few more thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening although confidence is low given the extensive mid level cloud deck streaming overhead. Nevertheless, given instability (ML CAPE values greater than 2500 J/KG) and effective bulk shear values of 40-50 knots per the RAP, cannot rule out another strong to severe storm similar to yesterday. Large hail potentially bigger than golf balls will be possible given steep lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, this evening and tonight will be quiet for most of the area. Patchy fog will be possible tonight given the moist low level airmass. Expect the clouds and fog to scatter out by Monday afternoon, with some sunshine and temperatures warming into the mid 80s to lower 90s. PoPs will be confined to the northwest Hill Country where a few showers and thunderstorms are possible. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Expect mainly a dry and warmer forecast for early this week as 500 MB heights increase and our area is in the surface warm sector. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s Tuesday. The next upper level disturbance is due in by middle of this week and at the surface will see a dryline moving into our area by late Wednesday afternoon and a weak cold front and dryline intersection in the Trans Pecos by Thursday morning. Also, moderate/strong instability will be over much of the area with some vertical wind shear. As a result, expect a few rounds of scattered to numerous thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday. The month of May is the peak of severe weather season, so can not rule out a few severe storms. Going with mainly medium chances of rain. Look for dry and warmer weather Friday through Sunday, with highs mainly in the 90s next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities in fog will begin lifting 14Z and rising to MFR and then VFR by late morning. Light southeast winds will shift northwest to north at 5 to 10 KTS mid to late morning as Pacific front/surface trough with drier air moves in. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 82 57 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 89 58 95 67 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 92 60 95 66 / 10 0 0 0 Brownwood 83 58 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 83 58 90 67 / 10 0 0 0 Ozona 89 60 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 84 59 87 65 / 10 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...04