Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 270803
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
403 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will wash out across the region today as
weak high pressure builds in from the north. A stronger cold
front crosses the region Friday with high pressure building in
on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Latest MSAS shows pcpn with an area of low pressure across NC while
a frontal bndry remains nrly stnry across nrn VA. This bndry is
progged to weaken/wash out as it pushes se towards the coast today.
What it will do is be the trigger for aftrn convection to dvlp along
left-over bndrys (including sea-breeze). Otw, weak high pressure
builds in from the nw. Although no svr storms are expected, lclly
hvy downpours will be psbl in any storm given high PW`s and light
bndry layer flow. Thus, will have chc PoPs along the NC/VA border
on south with the highest PoPs ivof the Albemarle Sound. This is
the MRGNL area in the day1 ERO. Highs upr 80s-lwr 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Eve PoPs across the se this eve will shift se towards the nrn OB
after midnite. Otw, warm and humid with lows upr 60s-lwr 70s.

NW flow aloft Wed will likely result in anthr chc for late aftrn/eve
convection to dvlp. Right now, models show the lwr Md ern shore and
ne NC (sea-breeze induced) to have the best storm chcs. Otw, pt
sunny with highs low-mid 90s except upr 80s at the beaches. Lows Wed
nite upr 60s-lwr 70s.

Pt/mstly sunny ahead of an apprchg cold front Thurs. Models show sct
convection dvlpng late aftrn/eve across the nrn third of the fa.
Will keep low chc PoPs across those areas aftr 21Z. Highs upr 80s-
lwr 90s. Lows Thurs nite upr 60s-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Flow aloft conts out of the NW this weekend with the upr lvl ridge
remaining across the nations mid section. A cold front is progged to
sag south across the area Fri only to stall across the Carolinas
this weekend. This keeps the chc for convection across the south
Fri. Highs upr 80s-lwr 90s.

Mainly dry/cooler conditions Sat with highs in the mid 80s. Another
front potentially moves through late Sun/early Mon with highs in the
80s to around 90F and a chc for showers/tstms. Shower/tstm chances
shift to the S on Mon with highs mainly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday...

Pcpn assctd with the upr lvl disturbance that moved across VA
last eve has shifted south into NC. Meanwhile, a frontal bndry
is draped across nrn VA. Rather quiet in-btwn these systms with
mainly VFR CIGS. Although the TAF period will start off with VFR
conditions, abundant low lvl moist will likely result in areas
of stratus/fog dvlpng towards sunrise. Any stratus will likely
be blo 1K ft, so went with a TEMPO group for later tonite.

The frontal bndry will wash out across the area Tues but leave
behind bndrys (including sea-breeze) that addntl convection should
fire up on aftr 18Z Tue. Still to early to include any tstm attm.
Lght/Vrbl winds tonite, bcmg south inland and se blo 10 ks along
the coast Tue.

Outlook...
Typical summer diurnal convection psbl during the mid week
period. A higher chance for convection Thu night/Fri across the
N with the next cold frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...

Winds are expected to remain sub-SCA during this week into the
weekend outside of convection. Early this morning, winds were SW
or W 5-10 kt over the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were
around 2 ft. A frontal boundary will wash out across the region
today, as weak high pressure builds in from the north. Winds
will start out WSW 5-10 kt this morning, become W or NW before
turning to the SE or S this aftn. S winds 5-10 kt tonight will
become SW overnight into Wed morning. A weak trough moves south
over the local waters Wed morning, with W winds then shifting to
the SE or S Wed aftn. Generally S winds on Thu, potentially
increasing to 10-15 kt during the aftn. SSW winds Thu night will
shift to the NW or W late Thu night into Fri morning, as a cold
front drops across the area.

Seas of 2-3 ft and waves of 1-2 ft continue through late week. By
late Thu night, seas of 3-4 ft and waves of 2-3 ft will be
briefly possible.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LKB/MPR
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...RMM/TMG


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