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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251046
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
646 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes region
today, before shifting offshore to end the week. After a couple
of cooler days, expect a significant warming trend late in the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 305 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers over the MD eastern shore this morning.

- Partly to mostly cloudy and cooler today and tomorrow.

- Patchy frost possible over the MD eastern shore late
  tonight/early Friday morning.

Latest analysis shows that the weak cold front has finally
pushed through the region early this morning. Scattered showers
and isolated tstms that formed just to the SE of the boundary
have nudged offshore and are diminishing as expected. Winds have
become E-NE over the region and will gust to 15-18 kt this
morning along the coast. Meanwhile, 1030+mb sfc high pressure
over Ontario and the upper Great Lakes build south across the
northeast CONUS today. One last shortwave embedded in the
departing upper trough will dive across the Delmarva this
morning, with an isolated shower possible through around noon.
Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy today (highest cloud cover
along and east of I-95 in the developing maritime airmass).
Cooler highs today in the 50s along the coast, upper 50s to mid
60s inland. Some milder upper 60s to around 70 possible south of
US-58 across far southern VA into NE NC.

Decreasing clouds and chilly tonight. Lows late tonight will be
in the lower 40s inland, with mid to upper 40s from I-95 east
to the coastal plain. Inland portions of the Maryland Eastern
Shore will clear out a bit faster and with decoupling winds,
could see lows in the mid to upper 30s Friday morning. This
could result in some patchy frost in typically cooler, more
sheltered areas, and a Frost Advisory could be needed. Will
outline potential in the HWO for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Cool high pressure keeps temperatures near to just below
  normal Friday.

The high slides just offshore of New England on Friday, keeping
onshore flow regime in place. This portends another cool day
Friday, with highs very similar to those of today (50s at the
coast, low to mid 60s inland). It will be a little bit milder
Friday night as the airmass modifies, with lows staying in the
mid 40s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A few passing showers possible inland on Saturday.

- A warming trend is expected for the weekend into early next
  week, with highs climbing above normal Sunday through the
  middle of next week.

- Showers and storms return to the forecast late in the period
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

A high amplitude upper ridge axis will be in place over the
eastern seaboard to begin the day on Saturday, with surface
high pressure settling in just off the New England/northeast
coast. Meanwhile, a low pressure center will weaken as it
drifts north across the upper midwest, sending a warm front
across the Ohio River Valley and into the northern Mid- Atlantic
Saturday morning. It may extend just far enough south to give
us a very slight chance of light rain showers, particularly
across the north and northwest section of the CWA. Elsewhere,
expect mainly mostly cloudy skies and slightly warmer
temperatures. Saturday marks the start of a warming trend, with
highs Saturday topping out around 70 degrees inland, and in the
low to mid 60s along the coast.

As high pressure builds offshore and settles in the western
Atlantic late in the weekend through early next week, expect
temperatures to quickly trend back upward through the period;
from highs jump into the 70s along the coast to low to mid 80s
Sunday, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most away from the
immediate coast on Monday through Wednesday, before the upper
ridge finally starts breaking down by the middle of next week.
The next front approaches from the west Mon/Tue next week. Our
next chance for showers and isolated storms will be possible
with the frontal passage itself by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Thursday...

Mainly VFR to begin the 12z TAF period, though some more
widespread fog could persist SW of the terminals through 11-12z
before eroding. Winds become NE this morning, and gust to 15-20
kt along the coast. Some MVFR marine stratus is expected along
the coast late this morning and this afternoon in onshore flow.
VFR CIGs expected to prevail inland at RIC.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions will prevail over inland terminals from
Thu night through the weekend. Marine stratus will keep ECG/ORF
and likely PHF in MVFR to IFR late tonight into Friday. Can`t
rule out a stray shower Saturday as a warm front lifts across
the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) SCAs remain in effect today.

2) A prolonged period of elevated seas/waves due to onshore flow is
expected into Friday night.

High pressure over the Great Lakes gradually builds into interior
New England through Fri. A cold front on the leading edge of the
high continues to push S across the local waters this morning with
CAA lagging behind. Winds were NE 5-10 kt across the local waters
early this morning. As CAA ramps up, winds increase to 15-20 kt with
gusts to 25 kt later this morning across the N waters and by this
afternoon across the S waters. As such, SCAs go into effect from N
to S this morning into this afternoon. Confidence has increased in
SCA criteria winds across the Rappahannock and York Rivers this
morning with SCAs now in effect. Confidence remains too low across
the upper James River for SCAs. Winds gradually diminish this
evening but remain 12-17 kt through Fri, becoming E 10-15 kt Fri
night, and eventually becoming SE Sat as the high moves offshore.
Given the prolonged period of onshore flow, seas (and waves at the
mouth of the Ches Bay) remain elevated into Fri night with 4-6 ft
seas (and 3-4 ft waves at the mouth of the bay) expected. SCAs have
therefore been extended until 10 PM Fri for the N coastal waters, 1
AM Sat for the mouth of the bay and the coastal waters from Cape
Charles Light to the VA/NC border, and until 4 AM Sat for the NC
coastal waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 455 AM EDT Thursday...

A prolonged period of NE flow is expected to begin this morning
behind a cold front passage, lingering into Friday. Mainly
nuisance flooding is possible across the lower bay, James River,
VA Atlantic-facing beaches, eastern Currituck County, and
Dorchester County with tonight`s high tide. As such, Coastal
Flood Statements are in effect for these locations. Locally
minor flooding is possible along the S/W portion of the James
River during this evening`s high tide due to a favorable fetch
of swell given NE winds. Smithfield will likely reach minor
flood stage (potentially high-end minor) with Sewell`s Point
also showing the potential for reaching minor flood stage. As
such, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for these areas.
Additionally, will need to monitor Lewisetta as the NE winds may
allow the tidal anomalies to rise higher than expected (current
forecast keeps them below minor flood stage).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Friday for VAZ089-093-095>097.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ635.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ636.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAM/JKP
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...