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000
FXUS62 KJAX 190019
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
819 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 814 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Only minor changes to the forecast for the rest of the evening,
as a majority of mid and upper level clouds continue to dissipate.
Clouds will return overnight as a weak upper level shortwave
moves across the area. Some patchy fog will be possible near the
Suwannee River and near/west of I-75 area towards the morning
hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure ridging still covers the region but will slowly
make its way out temporarily this evening and overnight as a weak
surface trough pushes in. Mid level shortwave troughing will
increase the cloud cover to be partly cloudy this afternoon,
clearing out in some areas tonight to mostly clear skies. Winds
inland will be light and mainly from the west with the Atlantic
sea-breeze bringing winds in around 10-15 mph to coastal areas and
up to the I-95/US 17 corridor. Inland temperatures will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s with coastal temperatures staying slightly
cooler due to the sea breeze. Nighttime temperatures will be in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

High pressure ridging continues after the weak surface trough
passes overnight with another weak trough passing through for
Friday night. Patchy inland fog is possible in areas of the
Suwannee Valley early Friday morning and should dissipate by mid
morning. The Gulf coast sea-breeze will make its way inland
pinning the Atlantic sea-breeze along and east of I-95.
Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s staying in the
upper 80s along the coast due to the sea-breeze.

Saturday, a cold frontal boundary approaches the region bringing
more moisture into SE GA (PWAT values of 1.6-1.7") and pushes the
weak high pressure ridging south. This will allow chances for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for SE GA in the
afternoon and evening. Daytime temperatures will be in the upper
80s to low 90s with night time temperatures in the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Increased chances for precipitation Sunday afternoon and into the
evening as a frontal boundary slowly makes its way through the
region, exiting and moving south by Monday evening. High pressure
fills in behind the front for Tuesday creating drier conditions
for Tuesday through Thursday.

Temperatures will cool into the mid 70s to low 80s behind the
front for Monday before gradually warming up again into the mid to
upper 80s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period at all
terminals at this time. The only area of lower confidence is VQQ
and GNV, as FG will be possible towards the morning hours. Have
included tempo groups here for conditions approaching MVFR, and
IFR cannot be fully ruled out as well. A sea breeze should affect
all sites except GNV with a wind shift near the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

High pressure ridging continues over the local waters today but
will move southward Friday as a cold front makes its way into the
southeast. The cold front will dip toward the GA/FL line and stall
through the rest of the weekend. This front will then push
southeast through the local waters Sunday night and early Monday.

Rip Currents: Moderate chance for Rip currents today and Friday
as Southeast/Onshore sea breeze winds continue during the
afternoon/early evening hours both days with surf/breakers around
2-3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Conditions continue to be dry today and Friday with chances for
rain increasing for the weekend. Today, light west to southwest
winds 5-10 mph inland with coastal areas up to the I-95/ US 17
corridor receiving winds 10-15 Knots from the Atlantic Sea-breeze.
Friday will see a similar pattern as the Gulf sea-breeze moves
well inland to US 17, pinning the Atlantic sea-breeze closer to
I-95. Min RH values will be above critical values today near 39-45
percent. Low daytime dispersion expected along the coast due to
low mixing heights from the marine air behind the Atlantic sea-
breeze today and Friday. Patchy areas of high dispersions will
occur Friday and Saturday as mixing heights increase with hotter
temperatures into low 90s and elevated transport winds from the
west. Isolated to scattered showers will develop over Southeast
Georgia Saturday and Sunday as a front hangs just to the north.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Max temps around 90 degrees can be expected at local climate sites
on Friday 4/19 and Saturday 4/20 and will be close record levels.

                        Record High   Record High   Average First Date
                        Friday 4/19  Saturday 4/20   to Reach >= 90F

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)    92/1995       92/1995         April 25
Craig Field, FL (CRG)     91/2013       91/2002         April 22
Gainesville, FL (GNV)     94/2011       94/1892         April 21
Alma, Georgia (AMG)       91/1968       93/1968           May 2

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  91  67  90 /   0   0   0  40
SSI  65  86  67  86 /   0  10   0  20
JAX  64  91  65  91 /   0   0   0  20
SGJ  64  89  65  91 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  62  90  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  62  90  62  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$