Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 270822

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
322 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Early morning water vapor imagery shows that the monsoon moisture
entrained within the building upper ridge has shifted northward and
thinned a bit from 24 hours ago. Instead of hanging out overhead,
the best moisture now stretches from northeast New Mexico over the
Panhandles into Oklahoma. However, this moisture will pivot back
across the Rolling Plains later today as the center of the upper
high shifts eastward and amplifies over Nebraska and Kansas. Heights
will only climb modestly locally, but with increased isolation
versus yesterday, most locations will see temperatures peak slightly
above Monday`s levels.

The intense heating, coupled with the uptick in mid-level moisture
and lingering low-level boundaries from Monday`s convection, will
fuel another round of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. Today the greatest storm chances will
reside off the Caprock, decreasing with western extent. A hot and
well-mixed boundary layer, modest instability, stout PWATs and
virtually no wind shear will support another day of pulse-type
storms capable of locally heavy rain, strong downburst winds, small
hail and frequent lightning. Individual cells won`t last very long
or move much, though redevelopment on outflows could propagate more
efficiently. The activity will gradually decrease in coverage and
intensity through the early to mid-evening hours. Even so, isolated
elevated showers/storms could persist overnight, favoring the
southern zones, where the best mid-level moisture is progged to
exist. Temperatures will be mild again tonight, only dipping into
the upper 60s to lower and middle 70s for most locales.

Previous thoughts for the long-term forecast remain mostly on track,
with hot/dry conditions dominating through the beginning of the
weekend and cooler conditions and precipitation potentially
returning by the beginning of next week. The long-term will begin
with an upper high centered over the western Great Plains and the
region under easterly flow aloft. A weakness will rotate around the
high Wednesday bringing the potential for precipitation and slightly
cooler temperatures to West Texas. Rain/storm chances for the
southern South Plains and Rolling Plains seem to be increasing on
Wednesday; however, confidence still remains too low to include
mentionable PoPs at this point. Heights will increase slightly
through the second half of the week, bringing warmer than normal
temperatures to the region. Low to mid-level flow will become
southeasterly by the end of the week as the upper high starts to
move to the south. This should help to advect moisture northwest
towards the area. An upper low, which is currently over eastern
Canada, will deepen over the eastern half of the CONUS by the end of
the week and a short-wave will potentially drive a front through the
area sometime early next week. This will increase precipitation
chances while providing cooler temperatures. GKendrick




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