Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 301152
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
652 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.AVIATION...30/12Z TAF CYCLE

Some patchy fog noted ovr N AR early this mrng, with tempo group
for MVFR conds at KBPK. Otherwise, VFR conds wl cont thru the PD.
High lvl clouds wl thin out later this mrng, with some CU forming
this aftn. Winds wl cont to be light and variable at most
locations. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 353 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

Upper lvl rdg axis was still aligned fm NW to SE acrs the Mid-South
early this mrng. The rdg is progged to rmn in control heading into
the weekend, with concerns for hot and humid conds acrs the FA today
and Sat. Already have heat headlines in the effect today and have
gone ahead and posted a heat advisory for much of Sat.

Model data has rmnd a bit too warm with high temps of late and wl
cont to undercut them a few degrees. Another factor to consider
today wl be a lingering veil of high clouds, assocd with weakening
convection acrs Ern MO, which could hamper warming acrs N AR. Have
included low chc PoPs ovr the far NE part of the FA where an assocd
outflow bndry could set off a few SHRA/TSRA.

Heading thru Sat/Sat night, the aforementioned upper rdg axis wl
start transitioning to the W as an upr trof strengthens ovr the Ern -
part of the nation. The resulting NW flow aloft wl help push a CDFNT
in AR fm the north Sat night, with sctd convection expected along
and ahead of the fnt. Still expect a good warmup on Sat, as sfc
winds veer more to the S/SW. A few locations may have a decent chc
of hitting the century mark.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Upper level high pressure will be centered over the Rockies to begin
the long term period with an upper trough over the eastern third of
the country. The upper trough will push southward Sunday and Monday
as the upper high continues in the west. The upper trough will
continue over Arkansas through Thursday.

Some relief from the hot temperatures is expected Sunday in north
and central Arkansas but the heat will continue in the south. A cold
front will be moving through central sections Sunday and into the
south Sunday night. This front is going to bring good chances of
showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night and linger into
Monday. Surface high pressure builds into Arkansas from the north
Monday and will continue into Thursday with much cooler
temperatures. Highs in the in the mid 80s to upper 90s are expected
Sunday. Behind the front highs will be in the 80s Monday through
Thursday. Lows will go from the 70s to the 60s.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Faulkner-
Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson-
Jefferson-Johnson-Lawrence-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Montgomery-Newton-
Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Pulaski-Randolph-Saline-Scott-
Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-Yell.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lawrence-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-
Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-
Prairie-Pulaski-Randolph-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van
Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
FOR Arkansas-Desha-Drew-Lincoln-Monroe-Prairie-White-Woodruff.

Heat Advisory until noon CDT today FOR Arkansas-Desha-Drew-
Lincoln-Monroe-Prairie-White-Woodruff.
&&

$$


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