960
FXUS64 KOHX 160011
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
711 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 711 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue through the
  week.

- Although the severe weather risk is low, heavy rainfall, gusty
  winds, and frequent lightning will be possible.

- Maximum heat index values each day will exceed 100 degrees each
  day west of the Cumberland Plateau.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 711 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Watching some showers west of the TN river this evening, but
overall, we should be done with diurnal showers and storms this
evening. Adjusted dewpoints a bit as they are a bit lower than
actual. Forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1112 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The warm and muggy pattern continues. The daily showers and storms
have initiated and will continue through the afternoon. The CAMs
have not been much help pertaining to the convective coverage the
last couple of days, and they may be underplaying it again today.
PWAT values continue to be 1.7-2" Some localized flooding will
continue to be a threat given the rain rates and weak shear. The
severe threat will remain low with the weak shear and water loaded
updrafts. Some gusty winds will be possible with the strongest
storms but will likely remain below severe limits. Patchy fog
will develop after midnight tonight with lows in the low to mid
70s. Wednesday will be similar to today. Afternoon heat index
values are expected to top out at 100-105 both days but will be
dependent on storm timing and coverage. We`ll have to keep an eye
on the coverage of convection on Wednesday. If the coverage is not
too widespread, heat index values may exceed 105 along and west
of I-65. Dew points increase a couple degrees on Thursday with
values in the mid to upper 70s. If this pans out, areas west of
the plateau will see max heat indicies of 105-110.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1112 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The pattern remains unchanged in the extended period. Diurnal
activity will continue with daily storm chances. Highs will be in
the upper 80s to mid 90s with dew points in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions to generally prevail over the next 24 hours. The
lone exception is fog once again at KSRB and KCSV. Could see MVFR
or IFR vis by sunrise. Outside of that, will be watching
thunderstorms in NW TN as they may approach KCKV later this
evening but currently anticipate weakening before arrival, just
like our storms earlier. There may be some morning showers to
watch for, and then our daytime convection chances tomorrow but
currently have low confidence. Light winds throughout the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  95  76  94 /  10  30  20  40
Clarksville    75  92  76  93 /  20  30  20  30
Crossville     68  88  70  87 /  10  40  30  60
Columbia       74  93  75  94 /  10  30  10  40
Cookeville     71  90  73  89 /  10  40  20  50
Jamestown      70  88  71  87 /  10  40  30  60
Lawrenceburg   73  93  73  93 /  10  20  20  40
Murfreesboro   74  95  74  95 /  10  30  20  40
Waverly        73  93  74  93 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Holley
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Husted