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FXUS62 KTAE 270755
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
355 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An active day is expected today with weak vort maxima embedded in a
tropical environment characterized by precipitable water values over
2 inches in a light steering flow. This is expected to result in
slow moving convection this afternoon and evening with high rain
rates. Flash flood guidance values are a little lower than average
for this time of year given the recent wet conditions, particularly
across southwest Georgia. Most areas in southwest Georgia are under
4 inches in 3 hours, which will be attainable today in the heavier
convection given the anticipated slow movement. The WPC has placed a
slight risk (level 2/5) for excessive rainfall across southwest
Georgia with a marginal risk (level 1/5) across the remainder of
the area. A flash flood watch was considered, but the flooding is
expected to be localized rather than widespread, so we held off on
that for now. However, a mention of heavy rain was inserted into
the point and click forecast, as well as frequent lightning given
the tall CAPE profiles expected this afternoon. Highs today will
generally be in the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values
mostly in the 103-107 range. Overnight lows will be muggy in the
mid 70s, except upper 70s along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]...

The very moist airmass remains in place through Wednesday afternoon
as upper impulses associated with a weak wave of low pressure
lingers across the area. Convection should have no problem
flourishing in this environment. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms look to focus the most along I-10 during peak heating
hours as a stream of vorticity aloft sags south and the Panhandle
seabreeze pushes inland from the aid of prevailing southwest
flow. High rain chances (up to >50%) exist through much of the
short-term period, with the axis of precipitation shifting to our
coastal and marine locations late Wednesday night in response to
the upper support continuing its southward push. Greater inland
convective coverage is expected Thursday afternoon from summer-day
instability, but does not appear to be as widespread as
Wednesday.

Localized flooding from heavy rain induced by slow moving/training
storms will still be a concern, particularly for locations likely
reeling from Tuesday`s activity. As such, WPC has placed all but our
northern-tier counties under a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall in their Day 3 Outlook (valid 12Z Wednesday).

Another threat to be aware of is the hot and humid conditions.
Forecast high temperatures are in the 90s through the period, with
heat indices reaching advisory levels in portions of the Tri-state
area by Thursday. This trend becomes more pronounced heading into
the weekend. Low temperatures are expected to be in the mid 70s.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The axis of a strong western US ridge nosing into the region is
going to contribute to widespread Heat Advisory level conditions
(108-112 degree heat indices) on Friday and Saturday. Although
showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast during that timeframe,
the rain chances are around or below seasonal values (<=50%), so not
expecting much in the way of a reprieve from the afternoon heat. By
Sunday, the ridge retreats west in response to a broad upper trough
swinging across the eastern US. The latter should prompt an
attendant frontal boundary to drop into the southeast and likely
brings us unsettled weather to close out the long-term period. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the 90s, with lows in the mid-
upper 70s (possibly 80 along the coast).

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Wednesday]

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours,
although a brief period of MVFR conditions is possible at VLD
around dawn. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the area this afternoon into this evening.


&&

.MARINE...

Favorable boating conditions continue over the next few days outside
of thunderstorms. Light west to southwest winds persist through mid-
week before increasing to around 15 knots late Thursday into the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are minimal fire weather concerns expected for the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Heavy rain is a concern over the next couple days as scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms overtake our area within a moist,
tropical airmass. Therefore, convection will pose a flash flooding
threat. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) for excessive rainfall exists for
the northeast third of the forecast area in the Day 2 Outlook from
WPC (valid 12Z Tuesday), followed by a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for
all but our northern-tier counties in Day 3 (valid 12Z Wednesday).

A more typical summertime convective pattern returns on Thursday, so
localized nuisance/minor flooding is a possibility from the slow-
moving/training storms. Unsettled weather appears to arrive early
next week. Forecast amounts over the next 7 days are widespread 2"
(isolated 3"+). Several rivers in the Ochlockonee and Suwannee
basins remain in action stage, but are cresting or falling.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   93  75  90  75  93 /  80  70  80  40  60
Panama City   91  77  89  78  90 /  60  50  60  40  60
Dothan        92  74  89  74  93 /  80  70  70  30  50
Albany        94  75  90  75  95 /  80  70  70  20  40
Valdosta      91  74  91  74  95 /  80  70  70  30  60
Cross City    90  76  90  76  91 /  70  60  60  40  70
Apalachicola  91  78  89  78  89 /  50  40  60  50  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM...IG3
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...IG3


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