489
FXUS63 KDDC 111728
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1228 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain moves in Saturday afternoon with continues with period
  of rain Sunday and Monday.

- Marginal severe risk with hail up to quarters and gusty winds
  possible Sunday afternoon.

- Another storm system brings more rain chances by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

06z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows a large closed
5670 dm low centered near Las Vegas with a ridge ahead of the
low in eastern Colorado. A shortwave in central New Mexico with
orographic lift over the mountains is providing rain and snow
with the rain shadow clouds starting to move into western
Kansas. At the surface dewpoints have been increasing into the
40s and 50s as winds are gradually turning southeasterly in the
850 mb levels. Also the northern lights are going on which is a
cool feature to see this far south.

Today for most of southwest Kansas we should see dry and mild
conditions as areas along and east of highway 83 will see
generally a mix of sun and clouds and decent diurnal heating as
highs get into the mid 70s to lower 80s. West of highway 83 as
an upper level shortwave ejects ahead of the surface low and
with moisture increasing in west Texas through eastern Colorado
from southeast winds...we should see a band of rain and embedded
storms approach into areas from Syracuse to Liberal by middle to
late afternoon. Rainfall amounts leading into the evening should
initially be light at around a few hundredths to 0.10 inch.

Saturday night we should see a couple rounds of rain move
through western Kansas as the initial wave will progress to the
northeast and bring scattered rainshowers across the region. As
the upper low moves into Colorado another stout region of PVA
and a 700 mb shortwave should tap into moisture and a line of
rain and storms will move from eastern Colorado into western
Kansas after midnight. This round could provide periods of
moderate rainfall and we could see as much as 0.25 inch for
areas along the Colorado border (~50% chance) and up to 0.10
inch to Dodge City (~50% chance).

Sunday will have an interesting setup...widespread rain will
move across southwest Kansas as the upper level shortwave moves
from west to east and it should be a wet morning. Short term
models have been trending to a period of subsidence behind the
morning wave which will lead to a break in the rain by late
morning and early afternoon and peaks of sun could be possible.
If any sun can peak through the clouds there will be modest
instability by late afternoon (~1000 J/kg CAPE) as well as
modest shear (hodograph veering in the lowest 3 km and then back
aloft) as the main upper low moves into far western Kansas with
a stout area of vorticity we could see a line of storms break
out roughly from Hays to Liberal and these storms could have
enough to produce large hail and gusty winds. Widespread severe
is not expected and any severe potential Sunday will be
conditional on getting some sunshine to add instability to the
dynamics coming in. Sunday afternoon through Sunday night should
also give us the timeframe of greatest rainfall as areas roughly
along and east of highway 83 are showing near 100% chance of
0.25 inch, ~80% chance of at least 0.5 inch of rain, and 20-30%
chance of 1 inch. Needless to say this will be a beneficial
system to help knock down some of the drought.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

With the slow eastward propagation of the upper low we should
see continued rain through much of the day on Monday. The better
chances of rain will be in the area of backside lift of the low
which would be roughly from Liberal to Hays on east and highest
POPs will be in our eastern zones (40-50%) while chance of rain
are around 20% at the Colorado border.

Ensemble upper level forecast have a brief ridge on Tuesday
which should provide us a nice day with sun and highs in the
middle to upper 70s.

The next longwave trough will come in from the north and west on
Wednesday with rain and storm initially for areas along the
I-70 corridor as the best lift and frontal passage will be in
north central Kansas. However as the subtropical jet picks up
speed along the southern CONUS this should help to elongate the
trough into the southern plains and rain chances will increase
across southwest Kansas Wednesday night into Thursday. Latest
ensemble trends keep the upper level feature more as a trough
rather than previous runs showing a closed low so this
particular feature should have the rain move out quicker and by
Thursday afternoon we should see dry conditions again. Early
probabilities in the amount of precipitation shown by both the
Euro and GEFS have 50-90% chance of at least 0.10 inch of rain
for all of southwest Kansas so we could certainly see more rain
in the long term outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Clouds will thicken and gradually lower from VFR to MVFR between
00 and 12Z as an upper level disturbance approaches the high
plains. Showers are possible by 00z at KLBL and KGCK and 03-06z
at KDDC/KHYS. After 12z, scattered showers will gradually end,
but with daytime heating after 18z additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected at the TAF sites as the upper low and
associated cold pool arrive over southwest Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Finch