599
FXUS63 KICT 170539
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1239 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers/storms this afternoon/evening across southeast KS
  No severe weather expected

- Patchy fog possible across much of the area Friday morning

- Severe storm chances return Sunday with additional storm chances
  into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

As of 3 PM Thursday afternoon, a weak, midlevel trough remains
across the southwest US. Meanwhile, a weak, shortwave trough was
advancing through western WI with a trailing frontal zone along
Interstate 35. Latest satellite and radar trends reveal isolated
showers/storms developing across the Flint Hills. Severe storms are
not expected with ~500 J/kg of MLCAPE and <20 kt of effective shear
present. Brief heavy rain is possible however with PW values up
to 1.3" or roughly the 90th percentile for May 16th standards.

As surface heating decreases this evening, the coverage of
showers/storms should dwindle as well. Clouds will gradually clear,
likely setting the stage for fog formation across much of the area.
Overnight lows will range from the 50s in central KS to near 60
across southeast KS.

As we transition into Friday and the weekend, a northern stream,
midlevel trough will slide across the northern Plains. Limited
moisture should keep things mostly dry Friday and Saturday. A more-
active midlevel pattern will emerge early next week as a
southwestern US trough develops. Deterministic and ensemble guidance
suggest a sharp dryline will emerge over west-central KS Sunday
afternoon with a very unstable environment to the east of the
dryline. Long, veering hodographs would support supercell
structures throughout the afternoon and evening. This event
remains several days away, stay tuned. The active weather
pattern looks to continue into early next week with additional
storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Should see some patchy fog later tonight into Friday morning
over portions of south-central and southeast Kansas, due to
light winds and moist low-levels. Backed off a bit from 00z
TAFs, as setup doesn`t look quite as favorable as before.
Otherwise, fairly quiet VFR conditions are expected through the
next 24 hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...ADK