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000
FXUS63 KICT 251744
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two round of severe weather possible today: This morning into
  the afternoon hours across eastern Kansas, then again late
  tonight into Friday morning across much of the area.

- Conditional severe chances east of the Flint Hills Friday
afternoon and evening.

- Widespread, potentially significant severe weather possible on
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

     This Morning through This Afternoon... The mid-level baroclinic
zone and low/mid-level moisture is surging northeastward early
this morning, and showers and storms have started developing
across portions of southern and eastern Kansas as a result.
Uncapped elevated instability is moving northward out of
Oklahoma and may support storms producing up to quarter-sized
hail early this morning. An organized complex of storms is
expected to develop along the KS/NE state line and dive
southeastward generally impacting areas along and east of the
I-135 corridor later this morning and into the afternoon hours.
Stout elevated instability (1500-2500 J/kg) and fairly decent
shear should be able to support up to ping pong ball sized hail
and isolated wind gusts up to 60 mph. This MCS may be slow to
progress across eastern Kansas, and it`s entirely possible
portions of southeast Kansas may continue to see strong to
marginally severe storms during the afternoon/evening hours.

     This Evening through Friday Morning... Most CAMs are trending a
bit further east with the daytime MCS that`s progged to impact
eastern Kansas. Also, increased MUCIN from the west may prevent
additional convection across central/south-central Kansas later this
morning that would reinforce the rain-cooled air behind an outflow
boundary. As a result, the OFB is not expected to impinge on the
warm sector too much this afternoon. Additionally, this OFB will
intersect the dryline in northwest Kansas. Better synoptic forcing
will be present in this region, and a supercell or two may develop
late this afternoon/evening along the I-70 corridor in northwest
Kansas as a result. Further south, questions remain in the arrival
of better synoptic lift and the strength of capping ahead of the
dryline. Even if storms develop across southwest Kansas, MLCIN
building across the warm sector after sunset will likely limit how
far east these storms travel. As such, the threat for significant
hail (2-3"+) and tornadoes will likely be limited to areas west of
US-281. Transitioning to the overnight period, a Pacific front is
progged to merge with the dryline and sweep eastward. There are some
uncertainties on if storms develop along the Pacific front in Kansas
as better forcing looks to be to the north and south, but any storms
that do develop will likely be linear in nature. This expected storm
mode, along with the potential that the boundary layer decouples
overnight, will mitigate (but not necessarily eliminate) the tornado
potential. However, up to quarter-sized hail and up to 60 mph winds
cannot be ruled out with any overnight storm. That being said,
strong low-level moistening ahead of the advancing Pacific front
will erode the cap by Friday morning. Again, synoptic forcing seems
to be somewhat misplaced, but if a storm exists in this environment,
large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado would be possible.
This seems to be eerily similar to the morning of April 16th a
little over a week ago. It should be noted that this environment is
exceptionally rare for this time of day in this part of the county,
so outright forecasting this potential is extremely difficult, but
the low possibility of a repeat there for Friday morning.

     Friday Afternoon/Evening... The Pacific front is not expected to
clear the forecast area by Friday afternoon, and most of the
activity from the morning time should be well off to the northeast.
As a result, a moderately unstable warm sector will exist for
locations along and east of the Flint Hills. The main issue will be
the lack of a trigger and deteriorating upper level support. The
upper wave will be exiting to the northeast where a significant
severe weather event could take place across the Mid-Missouri River
Valley. Surface winds across the warm sector may be slightly veered,
which will limit surface convergence. However, the CIN will
essentially be non-existent. If storms are able to develop east of
the Flint Hills, 2000-2500 MLCAPE and 45 to 55 knots of effective
shear would support supercells capable of golf ball sized hail and
damaging wind gusts. Low-level shear initially isn`t all that
impressive, but the low-level jet will enlarge hodographs, and the
tornado potential may briefly increase near 00Z before CIN increases
after sunset.

     Saturday... With the departing surface low exiting northeastward
into the Midwest, and the arrival of the next upper wave inducing
pressure falls across the High Plains, deep, rich low-level moisture
is expected to return to the northwest as low-level winds back to
the southeast Friday night/Saturday morning. By 12Z Saturday
morning, lee cyclogenesis will take place across southeast Colorado
with a surface trough extending northeastward into the Midwest.
Meanwhile, the dryline will likely be located from central Kansas to
western Oklahoma. One of the many failure modes that is making
itself apparent with the mid-range global models is the high
likelihood for morning convection along the Red River. Still, many
of these models show quick atmospheric recovery, and it`s possible
morning convection will do little to influence the atmosphere in
Kansas. Another potential failure mode for a high-end event across
the area will be the potential for early initiation, perhaps around
18Z, due to an uncapped warm sector (despite suboptimal synoptic
support). Any storms that develop around this time will not have
optimal environmental low-level shear which would limit tornado
potential. But, robust instability and deep-layer shear would
support supercells capable of producing very large hail and
damaging winds in this time frame. Even if the first round of
initiation occurs early in the afternoon, there should be an
opportunity for additional storm development as the dryline
gradually retreats during the day. If a round of storms is able
to develop later in the afternoon/evening, this is when the
environment would prime for significant severe weather. Between
21Z-03Z, robust instability (2500-3500 MLCAPE), steep lapse
rates, sufficient deep layer shear, robust low-level
instability, and improving low-level shear (especially after
00Z) would support the potential for tornadic supercells.
Assuming the atmosphere hasn`t been worked over from early
convection, and that storms remain discrete or semi-discrete,
the environment would be capable of strong tornadoes. After 03Z,
steering winds become more parallel to the frontal
boundary/dryline, and this along with robust upper diffluence
would support widespread convection along and east of the Kansas
Turnpike. Concerns would likely transition to localized
flooding for these areas overnight Saturday night.

     Sunday and Next Week... The upper trough will exit to the
northeast on Sunday, and rain chances should gradually come to an
end by midday Sunday as a result. A warming trend is expected to
commence next week, but the return of unsettled weather may be
possible by mid week next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A line of showers and storms will move slowly eastward across
the region this afternoon with low clouds in IFR/MVFR ranger
lingering over central and southern Kansas. More storms are
expected to redevelop over western Kansas later this afternoon.
Some of this activity could move across central Kansas tonight
with severe weather possible. Low clouds in the IFR category
will remain over the area with southeast/south winds increasing
from this afternoon and persisting through the night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Friday: Very high grassland fire danger is expected Friday afternoon
as dry air and windy conditions affect portions of central and south-
central Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...JC