Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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163 FXUS63 KICT 151130 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 630 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering storm chances this morning, followed by a round of potentially severe storms from late afternoon through tonight. - Trending hot for the weekend with temps in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Morning convection continues to trek east while slowly trying to build to the south along an axis of 700mb warm moist advection. Storms will continue to access 500 J/kg MUCAPE and marginal shear. Shear will get slightly better toward dawn, but it appears storms will outrun the instability thus not be cause for much concern this morning. Can`t rule out a storm or two becoming strong with pea to dime sized hail early this morning. Otherwise, attention turns to this afternoon. Not much change to the going forecast for severe potential today. Convection will be possible along a cold front which is progged to extend from eastern Nebraska through Central KS and into the TX Pan. A sfc low is expected to set up near the OK Pan by mid afternoon, the best chance for convective initiation is in the vicinity of this feature SW of the CWA. Late afternoon into early evening this sfc low will start to shift closer to the CWA while attempting to sharpen a pseudo warm front across southern KS / the KS-OK state line. Again, convergence here is also looking rather bleak. Dew points into the low 60s will try and pool across southern KS. A nearly uncapped environment is expected with steep mid level lapse rates, 1500-3000 MLCAPE, and 50-60kts bulk shear. If a storm can get going early in the event in southern KS, damaging winds and hail will be the main concern, along with potential for storm splits given rather straight hodograph. Overall 3Cape looks minuscule, but if a storm can remain anchored along the boundary long enough a tornado would be possible. Right movers will be crawling moving east at only 8-14kts. Confidence on storms initiating early afternoon is low. The more likely scenario is storms will have an easier time initiating SW of the CWA and grow upscale and eventually develop into an MCS. The MCS would track east across southern KS/northern OK through the evening/night. Contrary to any right movers earlier in the day, the downshear corfidi vectors suggest MCS propagation could range from 60-70kts. In this scenario, damaging winds of 60-70mph would emerge as the main concern this evening. The SW corner of the CWA could see temperatures as warm as the mid and upper 80s by this afternoon, with the remainder of the area limited to the mid 70s. Tomorrow looks a little complicated, if there is enough recovery, there is potential for another sfc boundary to be draped across southern KS which could again be a focus for convection as a compact southern stream trough moves across Southern Plains. Storms that can form across southeast KS could be marginally severe. However, much of tomorrow`s activity will be highly dependent on this evening/tonights MCS propagation and resulting cold pool/outflow boundaries. Ridging will build in Friday shutting off any remaining showers and storms. Ridging looks to pan out over the area gaining confidence in the warming trend into the upper 80s and low 90s for the weekend. A Northern Plains trough will result in a cold front moving through the forecast area late Saturday with little fanfare. Zonal to slight ridging will remain overhead into the start of next week, meanwhile a more pronounced western trough will organize across the western CONUS. A few progressive/compact impulses will eject out of the developing western CONUS trough and move through the mean flow, resulting in continued light POPs in the forecast. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 A few areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected for the first few hours of the TAf period. KICT and KSLN will likely see the rain come to an end for a period of time. KCNU will see some MVFR conditions with rain thunderstorms this morning which should come to an end around 14Z. This evening, another round of showers and thunderstorms will be coming through the region. KICT and KHUT are the most likely terminals to see this thunderstorm activity after about 21Z. KCNU may follow around 03Z tonight. Confidence is not that good right now as timing, intensity and location still remain a question. As such, used a PROB30 to narrow down the timing at this point. KICT and KCNU have the higher chances for severe thunderstorm activity this evening. Most of this thunderstorm activity is expected to exit in the 04Z to 06Z time frame tonight. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KMB AVIATION...ELM