


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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924 FXUS63 KTOP 131712 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1212 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs in the 90s Tuesday and Wednesday with heat indices around 100. - Thunderstorm chances return area-wide Tuesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Western areas have cleared out overnight but scattered showers and thunderstorms developed over east-central Kansas downstream of a weak upper low over north-central Oklahoma. Deformation may continue this activity through much of the morning but the upper low working east into southwest Missouri early this afternoon should allow for drying and clearing conditions for all of eastern Kansas by mid afternoon. Instability is limited but precipitable water values around 1.5 inches and slow storm movement will support isolated heavy rainfall. Highs will likely be cooler again for southeastern locations but return to the upper 80s to lower 90s in much of the remainder of the local area. Dry conditions should be the rule from late afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Will need to keep an eye on another weak upper trough moving northeast out of the southern Plains but this will likely remain to the south and east. Several smaller-scale upper waves will also be moving east across the northern Plains where the better westerlies will be located. These should eventually usher a front or effective front south into the local area in the middle of the week. The weak nature of the waves and impact of storm outflows along it bring uncertainty in when the front will move in. The most likely timing for passage looks to be Wednesday morning into Thursday evening with at least modest precipitation chances with it. Some low to mid level warm air advection ahead of the front will support warmer temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday and heat indices near/around 100 F are likely for at lest some of the area. Highs should fall back into the 80s late in the week though rise again Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with light southeasterly wind and mostly clear sky. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Poage AVIATION...Jones