Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 270841
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
441 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

The primary weather maker for eastern Kentucky to begin the short
term will be a large trough of low pressure in the upper
atmosphere. This system will keep partly to mostly cloudy skies in
place through the morning. The cloud cover should begin to erode
away by early this afternoon, as a ridge of high pressure drops
south into the northern and central plains, and the upper trough
begins to push off to the east. The ridging will bring partly
cloudy to mostly clear skies to the area Friday night and Saturday
morning. The cloud cover should increase late in the day on
Saturday, as another trough of low pressure pushes across the
Great Lakes and into New England. A few rain showers will be
possible across our far eastern counties by the end of the day on
Saturday as the trough moves through.

Temperatures will be quite mild, with highs generally in the 60s
today and tomorrow. The warmer day of the two should be today, as
skies clear off and we receive strong sunshine. Tonights lows
should not be bad at all, with minimum readings in the mid to
upper 40s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 441 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

The period will start with an upper trough over the northeast
CONUS, becoming a closed low as it slowly migrates eastward.
Surface high pressure will be dropping south from the Great Lakes.
In this scenario, fair weather and cold air advection will be
ongoing for our local area, and should last through Sunday. The
air mass should be cold and dry enough for frost to develop in our
normally colder locations. The coldest night for valleys is
expected to be Sunday night, as the surface high passes over
Kentucky.

On Monday, the surface high is forecast to drift to our southeast
and upper level ridging will move in from the west. The return of
warm air advection and rising geopotential heights will bring a
significant warming trend. The upper level ridge which moves over
is expected to persist over the southeast CONUS until late in the
week, probably keeping us dry into Thursday.

Late in the week the upper ridge should be flattening, and
clouds/moisture increasing ahead of a cold front. The ECMWF
generates some showers for the northern part of the area on
Thursday, and some GFS ensemble members also have precip over the
JKL forecast area on Thursday. Overall, precip is more likely to
our north and west, but there is enough uncertainty to warrant low
POPs over our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

A few rain showers will linger along the Virginia border through
12 or 13Z this morning, before finally exiting the area. Generally
VFR conditions will prevail with ceilings hovering around 4-7K
agl feet range through around 12Z. The best chance at some MVFR
ceilings will likely be seen in the east and southeast through
12z. Some partial clearing will also be moving in west of I-75
towards dawn, with some IFR fog possible at KSME. Patchy fog will
be possible elsewhere across the area. VFR conditions will return
to all locations by around 14z. Light and variable winds will
become westerly at 5 to 10 kts during the afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR



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