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219
FXUS62 KMLB 200723
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
322 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Today...Light westerly flow early this morning with EC FL still
located south of a weakening cold front reaching into N FL in the
predawn hours. Boundary will continue to diminish as it sags down
the peninsula today. High pressure to the north bridging this
boundary will result in ENE winds increasing into the afternoon
along with rising moisture levels rising in the increasing onshore
flow. Breezy conditions developing northern sections by around
midday and also indicating a low mentionable PoP by midday across
the northern coastal sections. Given the air mass is initially
rather dry, will limit the mentionable PoP extent to northern
coastal sections during the daytime hours. Expect a range in high
temps, with Volusia Coast highs topping out in the mid 70s with
earlier onshore flow and cool surf temps. Max temps will be
gradually warmer heading south and west, with mid 80s easily reached
across the central/southern interior sections of EC FL.

Tonight...The low level flow will veer a little more toward the
east. Persistence of onshore flow component and gradual rise in
precipitable water values will allow chances for showers to increase
to chance/scattered category across most EC FL locations tonight.
Overnight mins in the mid 60s inland and Volusia Coast and upper 60s
near Space and Treasure Coasts.

Saturday...A tight pressure gradient will remain across east central
Florida on Sat with high pressure near the mid Atlantic coast.
Onshore easterly winds will be breezy to windy at times with
scattered Atlantic showers moving onshore. Rain chances are expected
to range from 30-40 percent for the interior to near 50 percent
along the Brevard coast. Temps will be moderated with onshore flow
from the Atlantic with highs in the 70s north to lower 80s srn
sections.

Sunday-Monday...A mid level closed low and associated low pressure
area and front will move toward the lower MS Valley into Sunday
afternoon and across the southeast states on Tuesday. Low level flow
will veer to the ESE Sunday and SE/S on Sunday ahead of this system
with increasing moisture and instability into Monday. Rain chances
will increase to 50-60 percent Sunday and 70-80 percent Monday with
showers and storms increasing in coverage into Monday afternoon.
Highs Sunday will range from the mid 70s Volusia coast to the lower
80s across interior sections. The veered low level winds will allow
temps to warm further Monday in spite of more cloud cover and higher
precip chances. Highs Monday are expected from 80 along the Volusia
coast to lower to mid 80s for the remainder of the area.

Tue-Wed...The mid level low will eject NNE on Tuesday and allow
deeper moisture to pull eastward over the Atlantic by Tuesday night.
Drier air begins to move toward the area behind a front into mid
week. Will continue chance POPs into Tuesday before deep layer dry
air should end shower chances by Wed. Highs are expected in the
lower to mid 80s Tuesday and then will only drop a degree or two Wed
with a drier airmass expected allowing for more sunshine.

Thu-Fri...Long range models are varied showing the possibility of
another shortwave trough moving toward the southeast and Florida in
the wake of the early week system late next week. At this time will
keep Thursday dry and introduce low shower chances to end next week.
Temps are expected to be near or just slightly below seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR outside of a few MVFR areas possible in BR forming
southern interior areas through sunrise.  Cigs expected to remain
AOA FL 035 daytime with isold -shra mainly occurring north of areas
from MLB-ISM. Surface winds shifting to ENE and becoming breezy
northern coastal sections midday and spreading south and west this
afternoon as high pressure builds in behind front. Ocnl sfc winds
~G20-24kt this afternoon, esp areas near KDAB-KOMN.


&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Boating conditions deteriorate from N-S today as
post frontal wind surge from ENE works down the coast. Onset of
stronger winds/building seas may have slowed a bit, but will keep
consistent with start times for SCA headlines over the northern legs
at 08z...with SCA conditions reaching south to the middle legs in
the afternoon.

Saturday-Sunday...A period of gusty onshore flow with easterly winds
up to 20-23 knots will elevate seas across the Atlantic waters this
weekend peaking at 8-9 ft offshore. Small Craft Advisory conditions
are expected throughout the weekend making marine conditions
hazardous for small craft operators.

Mon-Tue...SE winds to 15-20 knots Mon will become southwest 10-15
knots into Tue. Numerous to widespread showers and scattered storms
are expected Monday, some may be strong.  Seas will remain elevated
across the offshore waters up to 7 to 9 feet Monday and then
decreasing to 5 to 7 feet by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  66  75  66 /  20  40  30  40
MCO  84  66  80  66 /  10  30  40  40
MLB  83  69  78  69 /  10  40  50  50
VRB  82  68  81  69 /  10  40  40  50
LEE  80  64  79  65 /  10  20  30  30
SFB  81  65  76  63 /  20  30  40  40
ORL  83  66  78  66 /  10  30  40  30
FPR  82  68  80  69 /   0  30  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Sunday
     for Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 4 PM EDT Sunday for
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Glitto
MID-LONG TERM....Volkmer