


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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278 FXUS62 KMLB 131851 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 251 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - A disturbance and associated deep moisture moves over central Florida early this week. Above-normal lightning storm chances and locally heavy rainfall with be the primary impacts. - Daily rain chances remain high, up to around 80% through midweek as the disturbance continues to pull deep moisture over the peninsula as it moves into the Gulf. - Hot and humid conditions with peak heat index values between 102 to 107 degrees continue today; residents and visitors are encouraged to stay cool and well-hydrated to avoid heat-related illness. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Currently...High clouds have reduced effectiveness of daytime heating some, slowing development of the east coast sea breeze. KMLB radar is even still showing offshore flow along much of the coast. Storms in the Gulf near the Nature Coast this morning have pushed outflow inland and into the northern counties, which has reached the Volusia and northern Brevard coasts and is supporting strong to severe thunderstorms. Storms have also developed along the southern coast where the east coast sea breeze has managed to develop. Rest of Today...Increasing moisture pushing southeast into the area along a broad surface trough is still expected to support high chances for showers and storms. Convection will continue to develop along the sea breezes and other boundaries while generally pushing to the south to southeast. Some locations could even see a couple rounds of storms this afternoon and evening, notably the Orlando and Daytona Beach areas, as storms developing in North Florida travel southward along the trough. Despite the slow destabilization, the environment remains supportive of strong thunderstorms, especially closer to the trough, capable of gusty winds to 55 mph, frequent cloud to ground lightning, small hail, and torrential downpours. There is a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms, capable of locally damaging wind gusts around 60 mph (5% chance), and a very low (less than 2%) chance for hail up to 1". While most storms will move slowly to the south to southeast, chaotic boundary interactions could cause some to become slow and erratic, resulting in locally high rainfall leading to ponding of water on roads and minor flooding of low- lying or poor drainage areas. Given the high moisture and boundary interactions, there is potential for a few funnel clouds as well. Despite the high clouds, high temperatures still climb into the L90s, which combined with humidity will bring peak afternoon heat indices o 101-107. Monday-Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) A weak 500mb trough moves across the southwest Atlantic Monday, passing over the Florida peninsula on Tuesday. A broad surface trough offshore the southeast U.S. coast attempts to become more organized with passing mid level support, developing a weak low in the vicinity of Florida. Waves of anomalously high moisture move through the region each day with modeled PWATs as high as 2.1-2.2", and values range above the 90th climatological percentile. High moisture in vicinity of weak mid level support will continue to fuel high rain chances each day (~80%), and a heavy rainfall threat will remain present. While global ensemble guidance suggests daily areawide totals of 0.5-1.5", localized totals of 2-4" remain in play both days. Areas that receive these localized higher totals over multiple days will become vulnerable to minor flooding. Although increased cloud cover may limit surface instability, tall skinny CAPE profiles around 2,000 J/kg and vorticity aloft suggest at least an isolated strong storm threat. Stronger storms will be capable of occasional to frequent lightning strikes and water loaded downdrafts which can produce localized gusty winds. Temperatures trend a few degrees cooler Monday and Tuesday, corresponding to higher rain chances and cloud cover. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Monday range the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday. Morning low temperatures hold steady in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday-Saturday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The weak area of low pressure is nudged into the Gulf on Wednesday as the Atlantic high builds back toward Florida. As the low pressure departs westward, the National Hurricane Center has highlighted a 20% chance of tropical development into the middle to late part of the week. Regardless of development deep moisture on the east side of the feature keeps rain chances high through mid week (70-80%). By late week and into the weekend, the Atlantic ridge axis takes control, favoring a more typical summertime pattern with rain chances trending closer to normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 A broad trough of low pressure moves across the local Atlantic waters early this week. Increased moisture in vicinity of this feature will keep high daily rain chances (~60-80%) into midweek. Light offshore flow today continues Monday as the system tracks across North and Central Florida, then southerly flow develops from Tuesday onwards as the system departs in the Gulf and the Atlantic ridge axis begins to gradually rebuild over the local waters. High cloud cover could delay or even prevent development of the east coast sea breeze, especially today and Monday. Seas around 1-3 ft. Locally higher winds and seas in vicinity of thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Scattered showers and storms have pushed in from the west and is currently moving towards DAB. Latest CAMs show a couple rounds of convection today, with the first round happening now and continuing into late afternoon with the sea breeze, and the second coming into early evening as the trough moves southward. Have maintained afternoon TEMPOS with MVFR conditions for TSRA this afternoon, starting 20/21Z across the interior, and 18/19Z along the coast, as well as the secondary TEMPOs for this evening for ISM and LEE starting at 00Z. Convection will diminish first along the coast around sunset, and then across the interior around 05Z. Light and variable winds overnight will become WNW and increase to 5-8KT by mid morning. Cams are showing scattered showers pushing down from the north Monday morning, so have included VCSH starting at 14Z for interior TAFs. Scattered lightning storms will then form in the afternoon, so have included VCTS for MCO starting at 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 91 75 88 / 50 60 30 70 MCO 75 92 75 89 / 60 80 40 80 MLB 74 88 75 87 / 60 70 40 80 VRB 72 88 72 88 / 70 80 50 80 LEE 76 92 75 90 / 60 80 40 80 SFB 76 92 75 90 / 60 80 30 80 ORL 76 92 75 90 / 60 80 40 80 FPR 72 88 72 87 / 70 80 50 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Haley AVIATION...Watson