Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 191952
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
252 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

...Continued Cool with Possible Rain...

The forecast headline for the next 24 hours highlights the
approaching upper-level storm system. For tonight, surface high
pressure will continue to move farther to the east. This movement
will produce winds tonight from more of a southeast direction. Plus,
clouds will increase overnight, as the upper-level system, to the
west, moves closer to Texas. This wind shift tonight will begin to
bring warmer temperatures into West Central Texas. Thus, overnight
lows tonight will be warmer than last night, mainly in the 45 to 50
range. For Friday, increasing clouds will limit sunshine. Plus,
winds from the southeast will be gusty at times, especially during
the afternoon. Highs tomorrow will remain on the cool side of
normal, with numbers mainly in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. As
the upper-level system moves closer to Texas, the resulting flow
aloft, from the southwest, may have embedded minor disturbances in
it; these disturbances could initiate showers and thunderstorms
Friday. Thus, continuing slight chance PoPs for Friday looks
reasonable.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)

The upper low will move from south-central Colorado Friday evening,
to the Kansas/Oklahoma border by Saturday evening. The dryline will
advance east across our area on Saturday, and by mid-afternoon
should be along the eastern border of our forecast area. The highest
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across our northern
counties Friday night, and across the northeastern part of our area
on Saturday. The lowest PoPs will be across the southwestern part of
our area. Some clearing is expected Saturday afternoon over the
western part of our area, where the warmer highs (in the upper 70s
to lower 80s) are expected. Could also have a window for elevated
fire weather conditions in our far western and southwestern counties
for a few hours Saturday afternoon, where somewhat gusty west winds
combine with relative humidity values dropping to 20-25 percent.

A cold frontal passage from the north is expected across the
northern third of our area by early evening Saturday, and across the
rest of our area early Saturday night. Gusty north winds will follow
passage of this front, and temperatures will be cooler overnight
into Sunday. Lows Saturday night are expected to be in the mid to
upper 40s, with highs on Sunday ranging fom the upper 60s across the
northeastern part of our area, to the mid 70s along the I-10
corridor.

Dry conditions with a warming trend in temperatures expected Monday
into Tuesday. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
with a cold front, which is progged to move south into our northern
counties Tuesday afternoon and evening, and across the rest of our
area Tuesday night. Carrying 20-30 PoPs at this time. After warm
temperatures (highs mostly 80-85) on Tuesday, temperatures will be
cooler Wednesday behind the front with increased cloud cover
(especially for our northern counties). Beyond Wednesday, rain
chances look to uncertain at this point to include in the forecast.
Warmer temperatures are indicated Thursday.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  70  55  74 /   5  20  50  30
San Angelo  51  73  58  82 /  10  20  40  20
Junction  49  73  59  79 /   5  20  30  30
Brownwood  47  70  55  75 /   5  20  50  40
Sweetwater  49  70  56  73 /   5  20  50  20
Ozona       52  71  58  80 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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