266
FXUS64 KSJT 101956
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
256 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The visible satellite imagery was showing scattered to broken mid
to high level clouds across the area this afternoon with a few
showers and thunderstorms east of a Sweetwater to Junction line.
Temperatures are much cooler than yesterday. Looks quiet tonight
across the area with just some clouds. Weather gets more active on
Saturday as an upper level disturbance will combine with
overrunning/low level upslope flow and PW values increasing to
1.25 to 1.5 inches for showers and thunderstorms from late morning
through the afternoon. There is a medium to high chance of rain
across much of the area. Localized rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5
inches are possible mainly across the northern Concho Valley and
western half of the Big Country. Also, an isolated strong to
marginal severe storm or two are possible across the Northern
Edwards Plateau and western Concho Valley during the late
afternoon and evening due to better elevated instability and some
vertical wind shear. The main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds. Temperatures will remain on the cool side.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Active weather pattern will continue into Sunday. An upper level
low over the Rockies will emerge into the Plains by Monday
evening. Additional disturbances in the southwest flow aloft are
forecast to move overhead Saturday night into Sunday leading to
additional rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Enough
instability and shear will be available (MU CAPE values greater
than 2000 J/KG and bulk shear values near 40 knots) for a few
storms to be strong to marginally severe with large hail the main
hazard. The upper level low will continue moving off to the east
with just a slight of chance of showers and thunderstorms across
our eastern counties on Monday. Tuesday looks quiet as shortwave
ridging builds in over west central Texas. The next storm system
is then forecast to impact the Plains around Wednesday and
Thursday of next week. This will bring our next chance for showers
and thunderstorms along with the potential for another round of
severe weather. Dry weather then returns for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Expect low end VFR ceilings to scattered clouds this afternoon and
mainly VFR conditions tonight. Low clouds will return Saturday
morning with MVFR ceilings at most of the terminals. Also, a few
thunderstorms are possible along the I-10 corridor this afternoon.
The winds will be from the east-northeast and little gusty at
times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     61  72  59  75 /  10  60  40  90
San Angelo  62  75  62  84 /  10  60  50  70
Junction    64  82  66  84 /  10  30  50  60
Brownwood   61  75  61  74 /  10  40  40  90
Sweetwater  62  71  59  77 /  10  70  50  90
Ozona       63  76  64  83 /  20  50  50  40
Brady       61  76  63  77 /  10  40  50  80

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...21