Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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006 FXUS64 KTSA 081555 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1055 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Extremely unstable air-mass already in place across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late this morning. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible across far northeast Oklahoma along convergent boundary through early afternoon. As strong diurnal heating continues thunderstorms will rapidly develop across far southeast Oklahoma, extending into portions of northwest Arkansas near or just before 00Z. Instability/shear profiles suggest baseball to softball size hail will be likely with a few supercells that develop through early evening. Also, given the extreme instability, at least some tornado threat will persist with any deviant cell motions/interactions. Severe probabilities were increased in aforementioned area with zone update. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The cold front will stall across central TX on Thursday with the elevated frontal zone remaining near far SE OK where a low chance of thunderstorms will exist. Otherwise, dry, cooler, and quiet weather conditions will overspread the region especially Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorm chances steadily increase and spread eastward for early next week. At this time the pattern does not favor organized severe weather. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 MVFR cigs will continue to increase at all sites through 15z Will also include WS remark at all sites through the 14z at all sites except KMLC. time period. A cold front will be moving into the area this morning and while isolated TSRA will be possible this morning, will not include at any NE OK or NW AR sites given the very low coverage expected. Cigs will lift to VFR categories by early to mid afternoon. Better chances for storms will come later this afternoon and/or early evening with the cold front so will include with prob30 groups across the AR sites. Once the front passes winds will become NW with prevailing VFR TAF elements for the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 84 54 78 53 / 20 0 0 0 FSM 87 61 82 57 / 60 70 10 10 MLC 87 60 81 55 / 20 10 10 10 BVO 82 49 78 49 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 81 54 78 50 / 40 50 10 0 BYV 81 54 77 51 / 60 70 10 0 MKO 83 55 78 53 / 20 10 10 0 MIO 81 51 76 50 / 40 10 0 0 F10 85 55 78 53 / 20 10 10 0 HHW 86 61 82 58 / 60 70 30 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...23