Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 310949
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
549 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal/none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A fairly amplified pattern out there early this morning, with upper
troughing extending from eastern Canada down through the eastern
conus, while ridging was being pushed toward the central Canadian
provinces down into the srn Plains. Strong NW flow aloft was over
the Great Lakes, with sfc high pressure moving through the region,
along with very dry air. This has resulted in clear skies across nrn
Michigan. There was a shortwave trough driving down this NW flow
toward the nrn Great Lakes, which is verified by clouds and some
light showers working their way into nrn Lake Superior. Temperatures
ranged from the upper 20s to the lower 40s attm. The coldest
temperatures were in the typically colder low-lying areas, obviously
protected from any wind. Based on these readings, current
frost/freeze conditions will largely be in these type areas.

The cold temperatures will rebound pretty quickly after sunrise with
good sunshine in most areas. However, the aforementioned shortwave
an associated clouds will be heading into much of eastern upper
Michigan and northeast lower into early afternoon, before departing
late in the day. The chance of seeing a few light showers are only
expected to scrape much of eastern upper, best chance around the
Sault and the nrn St. Mary`s river system, closer to the best DPVA
and in the deepest moisture. Clouds and any light shower should be
out diminishing later this afternoon and this evening, with drier
air returning skies to pretty much clear, outside of maybe some high
level cirrus possibly moving in late tonight toward daybreak.

Highs today will be a little bit warmer today, mostly in the low to
mid 60s. Lows tonight will largely be in the lower half of the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Thunderstorms chances.

Pattern Synopsis:

Amplified longwave troughing will pivot off of the New England coast
as upper-level ridging encompasses much of the central CONUS. Mainly
NW upper-level flow will reside overhead into midweek with an
embedded shortwave likely to move through the Great Lakes Monday
evening/night. At the surface, high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic
will slide off the coast by Tuesday as a relatively weak cyclone
should move across southern Canada south of Hudson Bay. An
associated cold front looks to sweep through northern MI Tuesday
night.

Forecast/Details:

Temperatures across the region will keep warming up through early
week with the next chance for rain/thunder coming late Monday
evening through Monday night. The aforementioned shortwave looks to
rotate through the main flow and over the state Monday evening,
providing favorable ascent aloft to help spark precipitation. The
main chance for any stronger storms will come Monday night as
relatively steep lapse rates are advected into the area by the W/NW
flow aloft. While the boundary layer will certainly be stable
overnight, this is expected to create a swath of elevated
instability (around 1,000-1,500 J/kg MUCAPE) mainly south of M-32
after midnight. This, when combined with 0-6km bulk shear in excess
of 40 kts and veering low-level wind profiles, could support a few
stronger storms if any initiate/persist behind the initial round of
showers that pass through the area in the evening before elevated
instability arrives. Timing concerns with this shortwave make for a
difficult forecast, even heading through Tuesday.

Confidence in appreciable upper-level ascent being in place to help
support storm initiation and maintenance isn`t particularly high on
Tuesday as this would rely on an embedded subtle shortwave/speed max
moving through. However, recent model guidance suggests that a cold
front could swing through northern Michigan in the Tuesday
afternoon/early Wednesday AM timeframe. Precip/storms may initiate
along this boundary as well as out ahead of it in the presence of
any localized near-surface convergence. With this in mind, was still
somewhat hesitant to put higher pops in the forecast. However, any
storms would form in an environment characterized by MLCAPE of
greater than 1,000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50kts across
northern lower MI. Despite forecast wind profiles being nearly
unidirectional with height, thunder chances certainly would exist
with any stronger storms that develop and a severe thunderstorm or
two cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, highs are expected to get into
the low 70s Monday afternoon before really warming up on Tuesday.
Highs across northern lower are expected to reach into the low 80s,
while highs in eastern upper look to be in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Potential lingering rain/thunder
chances

A mainly zonal upper-level pattern is expected through the much of
the long term as the jet looks to sit along the U.S. Canada border
into the weekend. Aside from shortwaves/subtle speed maxima
progressing through the main flow, the next main pattern shift will
likely be when an anticipated cut-off upper-level low in the Pacific
moves on shore sometime late in the period. At the surface, a
relatively weak cyclone is expected to be moving away from the
region and into the New England states on Wednesday, potentially
sweeping a cold front through Michigan during that time. With a
warm, moist airmass in place ahead of the boundary, rain and thunder
chances are possible early Wednesday. However, a fair amount of
uncertainty exists regarding rain/thunder chances through the
remainder of next week. Highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s
heading into the weekend, which would be around 5-10 degrees above
normal. However, rain/thunder chances will largely depend on the
strength of the aforementioned cold front, the degree of moisture
return into the Great Lakes following its passage, and
strength/timing of any embedded subtle forcing mechanisms in the
main upper-level flow. Current confidence resides in a relatively
dry airmass being in place heading into the weekend after the
frontal the passage along to help keep precip chances low to round
out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 549 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

High pressure has moved into the SW Great Lakes this morning, with
much drier air in nrn Michigan resulting in clear skies. This high
pressure moves slowly off to the SE heading through tonight, and the
pressure gradient will tighten back up a bit for today. Winds will
back more out of the W/WSW, with some gustiness returning to the
airports. Speeds fall off tonight, while continuing to back more out
of the SW. Only some high based cumulus for mainly PLN/APN, and some
possible cirrus late in the TAF period. No showers expected over the
period with VFR conditions at all airports.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

The pressure gradient remains relatively tight across the nrn
nearshore waters attm, as high pressure is settling into the western
Great Lakes. This will produce some low end advisory level wind
speeds for several nearshore waters of Lakes Michigan and Huron
today into very early this evening. The high pressure departs
tonight, but leaves the gradient tight enough later Monday for more
low end advisory level winds south of Grand Traverse Light in Lake
Michigan, despite increasing overlake stability via warm advection.
No showers expected until Monday afternoon and Monday night, and
even a few thunderstorms will be possible.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018-
     021>024-026>036-086-087-095-096-099.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for LHZ345>347.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for LMZ345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-342-
     344.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD


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