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000
FXUS61 KBTV 031446
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1046 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Another day of scattered showers is on tap for the North Country
with temperatures once again below normal. That will change on
Thursday after a warm front lifts through the region today which
will allow temperatures to warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Drier
weather is in store from Thursday and the first half of Friday but
another cold front will help bring rain chances back into the region
Friday evening into Saturday morning. Additional chances for showers
will be possible for Sunday but drier weather will return on Monday.
Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal following the
frontal passage Friday with a trend back to normal temperatures
expected by Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1039 AM EDT Wednesday...No real changes with the 1030 am
update this morning. Have just tweaked temperatures to reflect
current observations and trends. Still looks like we should see
an increase in shower activity this afternoon.

Previous Discussion...A warm front remains draped across the
North Country this morning but we should see it lift through the
region by mid-morning as a shortwave begins to enter the
region. This weak upper level disturbance will be the focus for
shower activity throughout the day. Thermal soundings will
remain pretty lackluster given high temperatures in the low 60s
to low 70s which will limit any instability throughout the day.
The NAM is by far the most aggressive with about 200-400 J/kg
this afternoon while the GFS and CMC both show 100 J/kg or less.
There was originally some concern for a few thunderstorms today
but that has since dwindled as forecast soundings show poor
lapse rates off the surface largely attributed to this piecemeal
warm front stuck over the region. This will lead shower
activity being widely scattered with more places than not likely
to see a light rain shower sometime today. The best chances
will be across the northern Adirondacks where we will see
increased lifted from northern Adirondacks. Rainfall amounts
throughout the day will generally range from a tenth of an inch
or less but a few embedded "heavier" showers could drop up to
two tenths of an inch.

The weather turns quiet overnight tonight as drier air filters back
into the region from the west/northwest. This will allow for skies
to gradually clear after midnight and allow temperatures to drop
into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Patchy fog isn`t out of the question
tonight, especially in areas that see rainfall today. Temperatures
will be noticeably warmer on Thursday as we will now be under the
influence of much warmer air aloft. Highs in the mid 70s to low 80s
will be common on Thursday but it looks like any rain chances will
be suppressed which should lead to a very nice afternoon across the
North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 316 AM EDT Wednesday...Westerly flow aloft will exist over the
area Thursday night with dry weather expected. Flow aloft remains
westerly on Friday with warm air advection taking place in the low
levels. This will push highs into the lower to mid 80s with 70s in
the mountains. Instability is expected to develop with the warming
low levels and looking at Convective Available Potential Energy
(CAPE) values in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Forcing will be limited
with terrain the only real forcing mechanism. Thus looking at any
afternoon convection to be limited in areal coverage and will keep
precipitation chances in the slight chance category.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 316 AM EDT Wednesday...Sometime in the late Friday night/first
part of Saturday time period a shortwave trough and its associated
cold front will move into the region. There are timing differences
in the data and have kept precipitation probabilities in the chance
category. Instability will be decreasing during this period while
dynamic support increases. Not a favorable setup for organized
convection at this time. Flow aloft turns to the northwest Saturday
night into Sunday and cold air advection develops over the region.
Highs will go from the 70s on Saturday to the 60s on Sunday. Keeping
Sunday dry for now, but starting to see the idea of a shortwave
moving through the northwest flow aloft on Sunday which could bring
some showers to the area. Will keep the forecast dry for now, but
monitor trends. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for a warming
and drying trend early next week with high pressure building into
the region at the surface and aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings are being
observed across the North Country this morning with ceilings
ranging from 2000 to 4000 ft. This trend will likely continue
through much of the day with most TAF sites bouncing back and
forth between VFR and MVFR ceilings. A period of IFR ceilings is
expected at KSLK based on upstream trends around this morning
but will gradually begin to improve late this morning. Scattered
showers will be observed throughout the day with most TAF sites
having a decent opportunity to a see a shower or two. These
showers will be light enough to where no restriction in
visibilities are expected. Ceilings for the most part will begin
to lift once we get to 00Z Thursday but KSLK once again looks
ripe to drop back to IFR ceilings during the overnight period.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Clay