Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 312338
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
638 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

.AVIATION...

Areas of showers with a few thunderstorms continue this evening.
While we do expect a bit of a break from this activity overnight,
it will return much of the day Monday. It is expected to be
scattered in nature, so for now will leave vicinity mentions in the
TAF that can likely be converted to TEMPO groups in the shorter term.
Note that brief visibility restrictions will accompany heavier
showers. In terms of flight categories, VFR conditions at all sites
can be expected to worsen later tonight, with MVFR cigs returning in
the 06-11Z time frame. At the San Antonio sites, IFR cigs seem a good
bet after 11Z, and they can`t be completely ruled out at AUS/DRT
either through Monday morning. Some short periods of improvement to
VFR may occur in the afternoon and evening Monday but prevailing MVFR
conditions are forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
he upper level low continues to be centered to the southwest of
Laredo over northern Mexico based on water vapor imagery. While most
of the shower and thunderstorm activity this morning and early this
afternoon has been limited to areas between Corpus Christi and
Laredo in addition to parts of the Texas Coast there have been some
pop up isolated showers and storms across parts of the Rio Grande
Plains, Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country here in South Central
Texas.

This trend will continue for the rest of the afternoon through the
end of the short term Monday night. Model soundings show generally
low values of CAPE and shear, along with unimpressive lapse rates so
while isolated thunderstorms are possible no severe weather is
expected, with lightning being the main hazard from any storms we
see today through the start of the work week. Models show
precipitable water values increasing over the next 24-36 hours so
any of these isolated showers/storms could produce a locally heavy
downpour that results in a quick inch or so of rain. Because of the
isolated nature of the activity we are not expecting any widespread
flooding concerns.

By Monday morning the upper low should be situated very near the
Texas Big Bend putting South Central Texas in a better spot for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Changes increase
during the afternoon hours as the diurnal heating will help add
extra lift to the moist environment. PoPs are highest for the Monday
afternoon period with most high resolution models showing a focus
for activity around the I-35 corridor through Monday afternoon.

The low will drift slowly north Monday night before getting stuck in
the broad upper level ridge encompassing much of the Southern U.S.
This will prolong rain chances for parts of the area into midweek.
With the increased cloud cover and rain around afternoon highs for
today and tomorrow will be kept a few degrees below seasonal normals
in the lower 80s.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
As the upper low is shifting slowly east, chances for showers become
confined to the Coastal Plains Tuesday and Wednesday, and the blended
output has a drier solution to the remainder of the week. Slow
warming trend continues under the influence of upper ridging, and
temperature get back into the low 90s for I-35 by Thursday.

As focus is shifted to the Tropics, there is potential for tropical
development next week in the Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane
Center has an area highlighted for 50% chance for development over
the next 5 days. This area of interest is from a tropical system in
the Eastern Pacific. We are still in the very early of stages of the
forecast for this area of interest, and changes may be made when/if
development is more clear.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  82  69  86  69 /  20  60  20  20  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  82  68  86  68 /  30  60  20  30  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  82  68  86  68 /  30  60  20  30   0
Burnet Muni Airport            66  80  67  84  67 /  20  50  20  20   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  88  70  90  71 /  30  40  30  20  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  82  68  87  68 /  20  50  20  20   0
Hondo Muni Airport             67  86  68  87  68 /  30  60  30  30   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  82  68  86  68 /  30  60  20  30   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  84  69  88  70 /  40  50  20  20  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  84  70  86  70 /  30  60  20  30   0
Stinson Muni Airport           69  84  70  86  70 /  40  60  30  30   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...KCW
Long-Term...Runyen


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