Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 031136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
736 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

High pressure offshore will continue to build into the Carolinas
through tonight. A cold front will approach from the northwest
tomorrow into Friday, then cross the area late this weekend. High
pressure will build in from the northwest early next week.


As of 730 AM Wed...No changes with the sunrise update, as the
12Z KMHX sounding indicates very dry air above ~700 mb, which
justifies keeping the rain-free forecast in place today. Temps
are starting in the lower 70s for most at sunrise, with a rapid
warming trend expected over the next several hours.

Previous Discussion...Ridging aloft continues today as surface
high pressure builds into the area from offshore. Deep layer
subsidence and lack of substantial moisture will keep dry
conditions in place with breezy southwesterly winds. Highs will
be above normal across the area, with low level thickness values
supporting upper 80s to lower 90s away from the beaches.


As of 3 AM Wed...Ridging offshore remains in control tonight as
upper level ridging weakens and deeper moisture begins to
increase in earnest. Still, dry conditions prevail, and temps
remain above normal.


As of 330 AM Wed...High pressure will continue offshore through
the end of the week bringing much warmer temperatures. A series
of disturbances will bring rain chances back into the forecast
late week into next weekend.

Thursday...Could see a very small chc of a shra or storm later
Thu well inland as upr trf begins to approach from the W but
still think best pcpn chances hold off until Thu night. Will be
hot again with inland areas around 90 with apparent temps
reaching the mid 90s in spots.

Fri through Saturday night...Unsettled this period as upr trf
develops to the W late week with a cold front approaching
through Sat and crossing Sat night. Timing and coverage of pops
still in doubt so cont with mainly chc pops...highest Fri when
models show best QPF over region. Highs mainly mid to upr 80s
inland with lower 80s beaches.

Sunday through Tuesday...Cold front will cross Sat night
followed by high pressure building in from the NW Sunday into
Tuesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF show some potential for
shower/tsra lingering srn tier Sunday so have small pops these
areas all day. Drier air will spread in early next week with no
precip Mon and Tue. Slightly cooler but less humid conditions
through early next week with highs in the 80s through Tue.


Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Wed...VFR conditions and breezy southwest winds
prevail through the period as high pressure well off the coast
remains in control.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Pred VFR expected through Thu with generally
dry conditions prevailing. Sct shra/tsra expected Fri and Sat
ahead of approaching cold front with a few periods of sub VFR
conditions expected. Return to VFR conditions Sunday with high
pressure building in.


Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 315 AM Wed...S/SW flow 15-25 kt gusting to 30 kt through
tonight due to the gradient between high pressure offshore and a
lee trough east of the mountains. Seas continue to gradually
build today in mainly locally windswell, peaking at 6 to 9 ft
this evening before beginning to subside late.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wed...High pressure offshore will produce SW winds
15-25 kt early Thu and 10-20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6
ft will subside to 3-5 ft. SW winds diminish a bit more Fri and
Sat to 10 to 20 kts with 3-5 ft seas cont...highest outer
central and srn wtrs. Winds shift behind the cold front Sunday
to N/NE nrn tier and W/NW srn tier 10 to 15 kt with 2-4 ft


NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-150-
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131-
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156.


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