Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 292041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
241 PM MDT Fri May 29 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri May 29 2020


As was indicated by the hi-res guidance earlier this morning, a
cluster of showers and -TSRA are moving across the Pikes Peak region
at 2 PM. Other showers and storms were noted over the San Juans and
east slopes of the southern mtns. Skies across the larger valleys
and most of the plains were mostly sunny. and temperatures have
warmed up into the U80s and L90s across the plains.

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Showers coming off the mtns will likely not make it too far east due
to the drier conditions and lack of CAPE over the plains. Will have
to watch for locally gusty winds later this afternoon for any storms
that do come off the higher terrain, given the inverted V soundings.

As was indicated earlier this afternoon over the San Juans, storms
have been showing rather high DbZ values, so some strong storms with
locally heavy rain will be possible, so will have to keep an eye out
over the burn scars.

Given that storms already are moving across the Pikes Peak region so
early in the afternoon, it will be possible that the atmosphere over
this region will not have enough time to recover, and most of the
precip for the Pikes Peak region may be done with for the day after
this activity moves through.


This day is still looking like it will be quite active as the
combination of increasing mid level moisture, a cool front moving
south down the plains and a weak mid level disturbance will move
across the region during prime heating. At this time all of the best
ingredients for convection appear to be occuring over the Pikes Peak
region later tomorrow afternoon, and for this reason have increased
the POPs over this area, with the possibility of locally enhanced
heavy rain over this region due to the favorable forcing. Marginally
favorable CAPE and deep layer shear will also be over this region,
so we may see some marginally svr hail and winds with this activity.

Elsewhere, hi-res guidance is indicating quite a bit of activity
over the mountains tomorrow afternoon, and this will lead to a
better chance of storms producing locally heavy rain. In addition,
storm motion tomorrow will be slower than the last couple of days,
so any heavy rain may linger over a particular region. Likewise, the
flooding threat over the burn scars will be enhanced.

It will continue to warm up across the region tomorrow afternoon.
Expect highs over the plains to be in the mid to upper 90s, with
locations along the lower ark rvr valley in the 97-98F range. Any
storms that can get onto the plains tomorrow will have an enhanced
wind threat given the inverted V soundings once again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri May 29 2020

The upper level pattern changes very little through the extended
period, though there are some differences between the GFS and EC
models. However, in general a ridge of high pressure will linger
over the region while a trough of low pressure just off the West
Coast gradually strengthens through the week, finally pushing
onshore Wed. Temps will vary little as well each day through the
extended, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s for the high
valleys, and mid 80s to upper 90s for the plains.

There will be a daily shot of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, mainly tied to the higher terrain and valleys, with
some drift across the I-25 corridor. Saturday evening at this time
looks like will have the best chance for convection to stray east
off the mts and into the adjacent plains, as a front lingers along
the Palmer Divide and serves as the focal point for stronger, more
long lasting convection. As the upper ridge flattens out across
Colorado for Monday through Wednesday, steering winds look to be
slightly weaker with a brief downturn in convective activity. Storm
activity will then likely increase once again for Thursday and
Friday, as the low trough to the west moves onshore and approaches
the Four Corners region.

The finer points of pcpn amounts and storm locations will be
difficult to pinpoint outside of a day or two, as the region
experiences this monsoon-like pattern. There will be a daily flash
flood potential over area burn scars, so stay tuned and check back
often for forecast updates. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri May 29 2020

Gusty winds possible at all taf sites associated with the weaker
TSRA this afternoon and early evening, and tomorrow afternoon and
early evening. Otherwise VFR conditions and light diurnal winds.




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