Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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759 FXUS64 KSHV 082342 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 642 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Active weather will continue across the Four State Region through the rest of the week. A slow-moving frontal boundary will keep the atmosphere disturbed (and environmentally conducive) enough to instigate multiple rounds of severe weather in the next 48 hours, including tonight and tomorrow afternoon/evening. Severe thunderstorms will produce risks predominantly for large hail and damaging winds, but a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. As of 3:15 PM, SPC has issued downstream Tornado Watches into the ArkLaTex accordingly through 10 PM. Otherwise, temperatures will remain above average with maximums in the lower 90s/lower 70s. /16/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Quieter weather briefly returns through the weekend before precipitation chances are reintroduced early next week. Quasi- zonal flow aloft will allow for a mid-level trough to drift eastward across the Four Corners into the Southern Plains. This trough, in combination with ridging shifting further east across the Mississippi River, will maintain enhanced southerly flow and moisture through most of early next week. Precipitation chances will remain through the same time period as a result. /16/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Widespread haze originating from Mexico and Central America will result in some instances of MVFR visibilities at the start of the period. A complex of strong to severe convection is expected to enter portions of Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas around 09/02z before moving southeast affecting most TAF sites. The storms should begin to rapidly weaken after midnight local time, so convection was not mentioned at KMLU or KLFK. Low clouds are expected to rapidly develop after the storms dissipate resulting in widespread IFR/LIFR flight conditions. A slow improvement is expected after daybreak Thursday, but VFR conditions should return to most sites by 09/18z. More strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated to affect Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas, potentially affecting KTYR, near the end of this TAF cycle. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 72 90 67 83 / 40 30 50 0 MLU 71 90 65 81 / 30 20 60 0 DEQ 63 86 58 80 / 60 30 30 0 TXK 69 87 62 81 / 70 30 40 0 ELD 67 86 61 80 / 60 20 40 0 TYR 71 88 65 82 / 40 40 40 0 GGG 71 88 65 82 / 40 30 50 0 LFK 73 92 67 84 / 10 30 40 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...09