Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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063 FXUS63 KICT 171711 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1211 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog potential early this morning across mainly south- central and southeast Kansas. - Isolated thunderstorm potential Saturday afternoon-evening across mainly central Kansas. - Severe thunderstorm potential Sunday afternoon-evening, mainly west of the Flint Hills. - Potentially active off-and-on thunderstorm pattern across the region next week through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 EARLY THIS MORNING...Moist low-levels combined with light winds should support patchy fog early this morning, mainly across south- central and southeast Kansas. Given scattered to broken low to mid level clouds, do not think the fog will be widespread, although patchy/shallow dense fog can`t be ruled out in low-lying areas. THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible over extreme southeast Kansas, as an elongated upper wave progresses southeast amidst weak/moderate instability and a weakly capped airmass. Low-level forcing is non-existent, so anything that develops will likely struggle and be quite isolated, with better chances further southeast of the forecast area. Marginal combination of instability and deep layer shear will preclude strong to severe storms. SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...Thinking a few isolated thunderstorms are possible across mainly central Kansas, along a trailing weak cold front. Have a feeling activity will struggle to develop given capping issues and weak to NIL upper forcing. However, moderate instability amidst weak deep layer shear and decent downdraft CAPE could support 50-60 mph wind gusts and small hail with any storm that can develop. SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...A sharpening dryline over western to central Kansas ahead of an approaching low-amplitude shortwave will be the focus for thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon Sunday, especially west of the Flint Hills. Warm mid-level temperatures and modest-at-best dryline convergence may make it difficult for storms to develop, especially with southward extent along the dryline. However, strong heating and seasonable low-level moisture amidst steep mid-level lapse rates should yield moderate to strong instability in the warm/moist sector. Additionally, effective deep layer shear of 40-45 kts oriented perpendicular to the dryline will support discrete supercells with any storm that can form. Marginal cloud bases should support primarily a large hail/damaging wind threat, although lowering cloud bases and increasing low-level shear in the evening could support an increasing tornado threat in the evening. Stay tuned for later forecasts as we continue to refine details. NEXT WEEK...An off-and-on active pattern thunderstorm-wise looks to take shape across the Heartland next week through next weekend, as a mean longwave western CONUS trough takes shape, ejecting various pieces of upper energy northeast onto Mid-America. Details on timing, amplitude, and placement of synoptic features remains unclear at this time, which will have a big impact on severe weather implications. Stay tuned for later forecasts. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Cumulus clouds will bubble up over the area this afternoon with a few showers and storms possible mainly over southeast Kansas. Winds will remain light and from the south with VFR conditions expected across the region over the next 24hrs. A frontal boundary looks to push slowly southward into central Kansas Saturday morning which will cause winds to switch to the north. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...CDJ