319
ACUS11 KWNS 152231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152231
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-160000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0796
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Areas affected...the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246...

Valid 152231Z - 160000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 246, with large hail and severe gusts the main threats. Narrow
corridors of focused severe wind swaths, perhaps with a
hurricane-force gust or two, remains possible over the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...Several multicellular thunderstorm clusters have been
oscillating in intensity for the past few hours, with some storms
having a history of severe hail. So far, one severe wind report was
received, which was a measured 78 mph wind gust near Plainview, TX.
A particularly strong cluster of thunderstorms over Dallam County,
TX continues to progress eastward amid a relatively undisturbed
airmass, where some of the latest Warn-On-Forecast guidance depicts
a focused corridor of severe gusts. Forecast soundings show a deep
boundary layer beneath tall and thin CAPE profiles where storms have
yet to overturn the ambient airmass. As such, storms should continue
to percolate in intensity and potentially produce more instances of
severe hail and wind over the next few hours.

..Squitieri.. 05/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33430307 36980300 36999995 33419997 33430307