011
ACUS11 KWNS 141745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141744
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-141845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0782
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Middle Tennessee...far northern
Mississippi...and northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 141744Z - 141845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop over the
next 1-3 hours across portions of Middle Tennessee and northern
Alabama. A few severe thunderstorms are expected with a localized
threat of damaging winds near 60 mph and occasional large hail 1 to
1.5 inches in diameter.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of scattered thunderstorms has developed
along a surface trough/weak cold front this afternoon from far
northwest MS through portions of western TN. Recent visible
satellite imagery indicates stratus is beginning to mix out
downstream of an approaching mid to upper level vorticity maximum,
currently located over northwest MS. As this feature continues to
progress eastward, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop.
Dewpoints in the mid 60s and temperatures in the low to mid 70s
under marginal mid level lapse rates are currently yielding around
1000 J/kg of MLCAPE under effective deep layer shear near 30 kt. A
slight improvement to the thermodynamic environment is expected
through this afternoon as destabilization continues, steeper lapse
rates slowly advect northeastward, and cooler temperatures aloft
move overhead. This may be especially true within pockets of
clearing. Multicells with clusters, and perhaps some bowing
segments, will be possible in addition to a few supercells more
likely later in the afternoon. Localized damaging wind gusts near 60
mph and large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter may accompany the
more robust updrafts. Conditions will be monitored for a possible
severe thunderstorm watch.

..Barnes/Gleason/Thompson.. 05/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   34269063 34579029 34769009 35038977 35158899 35658867
            36328833 36698810 36878719 36658634 36598586 36228572
            35818577 35168579 34778580 34558615 34408654 34138735
            34098876 34129000 34269063