Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 272020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272019
OKZ000-TXZ000-272145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0544
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Areas affected...Western north TX and southwest OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 146...

Valid 272019Z - 272145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 146 continues.

SUMMARY...Pair of potentially long-lived supercells within the
southern portion of WW 146 may evolve with an intense tornado and
very large hail threat.

DISCUSSION...A potentially long-lived, slow-moving discrete
supercell is centered over Knox County, TX. This supercell appears
to be anchored along the far southern portion of the broader
convective plume that extends north across OK/KS. With full
insolation in the warm-moist sector inflow to its southeast, its
plausible that a long-lived supercell will persist for the next 2-3
hours. Amid MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg and mid 60s surface dew points to
its southeast, a cyclic tornadic supercell could evolve beyond the
very large hail threat with up to baseballs reported thus far. The
supercell to its northeast in Wilbarger County, TX will also have
potential to further intensify as it spreads towards and northwest
of the Wichita Falls vicinity, given 0-1 km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 per
FDR VWP data.

..Grams.. 04/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   34049929 34279919 34669862 34789799 34719739 34239746
            33609778 33159835 33059928 33179992 33479991 34049929
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