Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
567
ACUS11 KWNS 111859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111858
NMZ000-112100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0752
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024
Areas affected...Portions of central New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 111858Z - 112100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms within the higher terrain of central New Mexico may
produce large hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a brief
tornado. A watch is not anticipated this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Mid-level ascent is increasing this afternoon across
portions of central New Mexico. Despite dewpoints in the 40s F, this
has allowed convection to develop on the higher terrain. A few
low-topped storms are possible this afternoon. Long hodographs and
around -17 C temperatures at 500 mb should promote some risk for
large hail. These storms will progress northeastward, but will
encounter a more stable environment at lower elevations. That said,
storms may peak in intensity over the next 1-2 hours. A storm west
of Los Alamos did show some signs of stronger low-level rotation in
the last 30 minutes. The KABX VAD profile has modest low-level
turning. The tornado threat will be tempered by the limited spatial
extent of a favorable environment and generally marginally intense
storms, but a brief tornado is at least possible.
..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/11/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34980722 36020720 36410666 36200577 35550545 34660518
34190554 34220613 34980722