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000
FXUS64 KTSA 210521
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 909 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Area of rain and storms has primarily remained south of the
red river from mid to late afternoon on, with the northern
periphery moving south and east away from SE OK. Some of the
latest CAM`s indicate some shower activity will remain possible
through tonight, so will keep low chances for showers in for
the remainder of the overnight period across SE OK and part
of WC AR. Remaining first period elements are in line, so those have
been left as is.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Sfc high builds across the region Sunday providing a pleasant
early Spring day. Ideal radiational cooling conditions expected
Sunday night and a light freeze may be possible across far NE OK
into valleys of far NW AR.

Winds turn southerly on Monday and increase while temperatures
beginning a warming trend which will continue into Tuesday. The
next cold front remains timed to enter the forecast area Tuesday
afternoon with only minor influence on temperatures. Precip
chances with the frontal passage continue to appear very low with
meager instability and poor lapse rates in place.

Warm advection convection is likely to develop Tuesday night into
Wednesday as return flow quickly develops atop the decaying post
frontal airmass. Placement and coverage of this convection remains
highly uncertain and the favored area should focus north of the
local region late Wednesday into Thursday. Precip chances remain
low during this period given the uncertainties. The flow aloft
becomes southwesterly ahead of the next stronger wave which will
begin to influence the southern Plains by late Thursday.
Convection developing further west could spread into the forecast
area either Thursday night or Friday. Additional showers and
storms appear probable Friday afternoon into Friday evening as the
upper trough axis passes. Increasing instability and shear within
this time frame will increase the potential for severe weather.
The pattern remains active into next weekend as the next strong
wave over the southern CONUS may already be in place by that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A few scattered showers will remain possible overnight at KMLC/KFSM
before upper jet streak shifts east of the region. Otherwise, broken
mid clouds will give way to mostly clear skies Sunday morning with
light north winds by early Sunday evening as surface high pressure
builds over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  39  73  54 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   66  39  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   65  39  71  53 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   65  35  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   64  34  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   62  36  69  50 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   64  38  69  51 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   63  36  68  51 /   0   0   0  10
F10   64  39  69  52 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   63  39  67  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12