Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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087 FXUS64 KTSA 081845 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of this afternoon and tonight) Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Thunderstorms continue to develop early this afternoon across northeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of a cold front that extends from near Nowata to near Oilton and back into south-central Oklahoma. Thunderstorm development is expected to continue in the vicinity of the front as it moves east across the region. With the airmass already extremely unstable and very little if any cap in place, any storms that develop will have the potential to become severe rapidly. Giant hail and significant tornadoes will be the main concern with impressive deep layer shear above. The storms are expected to come to an end later this evening as the cold front exits. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Wednesday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Most of the area will be dry on Thursday. However, there will be a small chance of showers/storms across southeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon/evening as a storm system skirts the area to the south. High pressure is expected to prevail Friday into Saturday with dry conditions forecast area-wide. Shower/storm chances return Sunday and continue into early next week as an upper level low slowly moves out of the Rockies and into the Plains. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Scattered to broken stratocumulus deck this afternoon across E OK/NW AR. As mentioned in previous discussion, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon across this area. Storms will primarily impact the northwest Arkansas TAF sites starting late afternoon through early evening. LIFR visibilities, strong and gusty winds, including hail will be likely in the stronger storms. Behind front, lower clouds will begin to clear from northwest to southeast tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 54 80 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 60 84 57 78 / 80 10 10 0 MLC 60 81 57 77 / 10 20 10 0 BVO 49 78 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 54 80 50 75 / 70 10 10 0 BYV 54 77 50 72 / 70 0 10 0 MKO 55 78 53 75 / 10 10 10 0 MIO 50 76 50 73 / 10 0 0 0 F10 55 78 53 75 / 10 10 10 0 HHW 63 82 58 77 / 70 40 20 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...12