Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 230755

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
355 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Clouds will gradually break up this morning, as high pressure
overspreads the area and provides a mostly clear sky this
afternoon through at least Friday. Highs will be mainly 70s to
near 80 for the next couple of days, but a warm up to
widespread 80s will occur as we head into the weekend.


345 AM update...
High pressure will take over, to break up clouds and begin a
multi-day period of quiet weather.

Progress of cold front got hung up a bit, awaiting passage of
shortwave overnight. This allowed a few more showers/storm
clusters to progress through Northeast Pennsylvania, including a
few spots receiving locally heavy rainfall. Southern Luzerne
County in particular had a Flood Advisory earlier, due to a
stripe of 1 to 2 inches; much of which occurred in only a couple
hours. However, shortwave is finally exiting which is kicking
the front through prior to dawn, and remaining showers have
significantly diminished in size and magnitude. Scattered
showers will still be found in greater Wilkes-Barre/Scranton
over to the Poconos up to about dawn or so.

While abundant moisture exists in the lowest few to several
thousand feet, which has kept a low hanging overcast and even
some fog in most of the area, much drier air is advecting just
above that layer. The late May sun angle will work its magic to
mix out the clouds from north to south this morning; this
afternoon will be sunny and pleasant. Highs will be in the 70s
to near 80, with dewpoints crashing into the upper 40s-lower 50s
which is quite comfortable.

Though the sky will be clear tonight, there will still be a
decent pressure gradient and cool air advection. So despite
recent rainfall and a mature greening up across the region,
dryness and continued mixing of incoming air mass will likely
relegate any patchy fog to the most sheltered/prone drainage
valleys. Very late tonight, near dawn, the surface high will
nose in across the NY Thruway corridor which could allow brief
fog in the Mohawk Valley and perhaps even just north of
Syracuse. Lows tonight will be right around climatology; in the
mid 40s to lower 50s.


345 AM Update...
A splendid short term period is in store with dry weather and
warming temperatures.

High pressure will pass directly overhead on Thursday, then drop
off of the Midatlantic Coast on Friday allowing a warm return
flow to get established. This will surge temperatures from
mainly mid-upper 70s Thursday, to upper 70s-mid 80s on Friday.
Dewpoints both days will likely fall short of what the models
are suggesting, which is typical when there is very dry air just
above the mixing layer.

Winds will be fairly light out of the west-northwest Thursday,
but it picks up out of the west-southwest Friday as mixing
reaches deeper to above 800mb for most of the region with gusts
of 15-20 mph. It will be a warm yet fairly comfortable wind,
since dewpoints will still generally be only lower to mid 50s.

While a passing shower cannot be totally ruled out in northern
Oneida County Friday night, more likely than not there will be
too much dry air in the lower levels for it to be realized at
ground level. Overall it will be another dry and quiet night for
our region. Lows Friday night will be upper 50s-lower 60s, with
a mostly clear sky except partly cloudy in the far north.


A cold frontal boundary will move into northern New England with
high pressure well off the east coast. Warm southerly flow will
continue to allow the pattern to warm further on Saturday with
an increase in moisture. The frontal boundary will then move
into our region Sunday and Monday with a warm and moist airmass
in place.

Shortwaves moving along the front will likely generate some
showers and thunderstorms with the best chances Sunday into
Monday with our region near the front. Isolated storms on
Saturday are still possible with peak heating. Modeling is
picking up on instability Saturday through Monday with the mean
ensemble surface based cape around 1,000 J/KG. 0-6 km bulk shear
looks more marginal than in past occurrences of strong to
severe storms this year but still may be sufficient if the
environment is unstable for strong to severe storms at some
point Saturday afternoon through Monday.

With our region firmly in the warm sector Saturday highs
should reach well into the 80`s for many locations. Since
yesterday, blended guidance has increased highs a bit catching
on to the latest trends but may still be a degree or two too
cool. Temperatures should gradually cool early next week as the
cold front moves through with our region back into the 70`s
Monday and Tuesday for highs and 50`s for lows.

The approach of another cold front keep a storm chance into


Overnight: LIFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected
to become more widespread overnight with low stratus and fog
continuing to develop. Some uncertainty with exact timing the
next few hours is reflected in Tempo groups. Winds will be light
and variable.

Today: LIFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities should lift
quickly from 12 to 15Z to VFR levels and scatter out. Northwest
wind gusts from 10 to 20 knots this afternoon.

Confidence levels moderate to high throughout the TAF period.


Wednesday night through Friday night...Mainly VFR, though late
night-early morning valley fog possible especially KELM.

Saturday through Sunday...Chance of showers/thunder, associated




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